Diabetes in Tower Hamlets

The number of people with diabetes in Tower Hamlets will rise by 13,562 in the next 20 years, placing huge pressure on local health services, according to Public Health England.

There are currently 20,052 sufferers in the area, up by 655 on last year. That’s 8.3% of all the people living in Tower Hamlets , which is below the national rate of 8.6%. But forecasts by PHE, a government agency, show that by 2020 the rate will have gone up to 8.6% and in 2035 will hit 10.3%.

Diabetes 2035

The agency based its predictions on health surveys carried out over three years and focused on people over the age of 16. PHE says that around 90% of the new cases will be Type 2 diabetes, which is caused by lifestyle factors and linked to obesity. It says these cases are preventable and tackling the problem is fundamental to the future of the health service.

The increased prevalence of the condition coincides with a rise in the population of the capital in the coming decades. There will be 895,489 diabetes sufferers in London’s 33 boroughs by 2035, and 3.8% of them will live in Tower Hamlets .

Diabetes is caused by the inability of the body to regulate the amount of sugar in the blood. It is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart attack. Sufferers may also develop kidney disease and foot ulcers, which can lead to amputation.

Source data

More diabetes stories

Health, nhs, obesity, diabetes

Growth of preventable cases of diabetes threaten the health service

Obese copy

The number of people in London suffering from diabetes will rocket by 40% over the next 20 years, according to forecasts from Public Health England.

Its figures show that in 2016 there are 638,000 people over 16 with diabetes. But rising rates coupled with a growing population means that this will go up by more than a quarter of million to 895,000 by 2035.

PHE says that around 90% of the new cases will be Type 2 diabetes, which is caused by lifestyle factors and linked to obesity. It says these cases are preventable and tackling the problem is fundamental to the future of the health service.

John Newton of Public Health England said: “Developing diabetes in not an inevitable part of ageing.  We have the opportunity through public health to reverse this trend and safeguard the health of the nation and the future of the NHS.”

The PHE forecasts reveals a wide discrepancy in rates across the capital.  Brent has the highest rate of diabetes not only in London but in England with 11.5% of people with the condition today.  Kingston has the lowest rate in England at 6.7%.

The highest rates after Brent are in Harrow, Redbridge and Ealing. The lowest, apart from  Kingston, are in Richmond, Wandsworth and Islington.

Diabetes rate 2016

Both Brent and Kingston will retain their positions as the boroughs with the highest and lowest rates in England by 2035.  The rate in Brent will climb to 13.6% of the population.

The record in Ealing, Harrow and Redbridge will remain poor and Newham will be second only to Brent with a rate of 12.7%.

Kingston’s rate will rise to 7.6%, with neighbouring Richmond, plus Wandsworth and Islington remaining among the areas with lowest rates.

Diabetes 2035

The data shows a worsening situation throughout London over the next two decades.  Today there are seven boroughs where the prevalence of diabetes in the population is above 10%. By 2035 the rate is forecast to be one in ten or higher in 17 areas.

The biggest change in the rate of the condition between 2016 and 2035 is forecast to be in Tower Hamlets where the rate will go up by 24%.  The borough is also expected to see the biggest growth in population in the coming decades, as reported by Urbs. The combination of these factors will place severe pressure on local health services.

Diabetes is caused by the inability of the body to regulate the amount of sugar in the blood. It is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart attack. Sufferers may also develop kidney disease and foot ulcers, which can lead to amputation.

Source data

More diabetes stories

See also

Sportiest Londoners live in the wealthier south west boroughs

How the obesity rate doubled for the class of 2007

Size matters – and it depends where you live

 

Drug deaths hit their highest level for 15 years

heroin

The number of people killed by drug abuse in London is at its highest level this century.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that 298 people died due to misuse of illegal substances in 2015, the highest number since 1999. It is also the highest death rate since the late 90s – 35 per million residents.

The rate of drug deaths has been increasing since 2012 after a downward trend this century from high points in the late 90s.  But although it has risen, the capital still has the second lowest mortality rate of all the regions in England and Wales. Only the East Midlands has a lower rate than London. The highest death rates are now in the North East, North West, Wales, and Yorkshire and Humberside.

Drug death rate regions-2

This is a turnaround from 1993, when the current data record begins.  London had the highest mortality rate and accounted for 23% of all deaths.  In 2015 that had halved to 12% of deaths as the problem of illegal drug misuse has become more widespread.

Drug death comparison-2

Across London, Haringey and central areas of Westminster, Lambeth, Southwark Camden, Islington and Tower Hamlets have that most serious problems.  The data at borough level is gathered for three-year periods due to very low numbers in some areas.  From 2013 to 2015, 43 people died in Haringey and 42 in both Westminster and Lambeth.

map drug deeaths 2015-2

There were fewer than 20 deaths in the period in most of the outlying boroughs, and in Merton, Barking and Dagenham and among the small population of the City of London the number of deaths was in single figures.

Source data

See also

Low drug-related death rates hide middle-aged heroin problem

Teenage survey finds that Richmond has highest level of cannabis use

Violence, disruption and drugs – why 20,000 pupils were excluded from school last year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Smoking on the rise in six boroughs but the city is stubbing out the habit

Smoking-2Against the general trend of both the city and the country, smoking has increased in six boroughs since 2012.

The latest data gathered by the Office for National Statistics through its large-scale Annual Population Survey reveals that the rate of smoking in 2015 compared to 2012 was up in Harrow, Haringey, Kensington and Chelsea, Kingston, Newham and Tower Hamlets.

The biggest increase, of nearly 14%, was in Harrow, but the overall level of smoking remains low in the borough. Haringey, Newham and Tower Hamlets experienced an increase on rates that are among the highest in London.

smoking change 12-15-2

Although the increases are mostly small they are significant in the context of falling rates across the rest of the capital.  The average rate for London has gone down from 18.2% who said they were smokers in 2012 to 16.3% in 2015.  In Redbridge the rate fell by more than 30% over that period, according to the ONS figures. There were also steep declines in Brent and Bromley.

The data does not reveal the reason behind these changes.  It may be the consequence of changing habits or changes in the make up of the population in areas. It may be due to people aswering questions more honestly, as the survey relies on individuals to define themselves as smokers.

The rate of smoking in London is among the lowest for any region in England.  Across England 16.9% of people say that they are smokers. The rate is lower than that in 20 London boroughs.  The lowest rate in London is 11.5% in Redbridge, but it is nearly double that in Haringey where 22% of people said they smoked in 2015.  In five boroughs – Haringey, Lambeth, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Newham –  two or more in every ten people smoke.

Smoking rates-2

Apart from Redbridge, Richmond, Brent and Bromley all have a rate of smoking at around 12% or lower.

There are a number of measures of smoking carried out across the country.  A survey at GP surgeries of people over 15 carried out over two year periods found the level of smoking in London fractionally higher in 2014/15 than the most recent ONS data, It also recorded small rises in a handful of boroughs.

Source data

See Also

Police taking a relaxed approach to ban on smoking in cars

Low birth weight babies in Tower Hamlets 60% above London average

Teenage survey finds that Richmond has highest level of cannabis use

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Falling numbers for free school meals but rates still among highest in country

children legsThe number of pupils claiming free school meals is continuing to fall in London. However, there is a greater proportion of children in nursery, primary and secondary schools claiming free lunches here than in many other parts of the country.

New data from the Department of Education shows that nearly 17% of London pupils are receiving free school meals in nurseries and primaries – more than two percentage points higher than the average in England.

Only the North East and West Midlands regions have a higher proportion of youngsters on the free meal scheme.  In Tower Hamlets and Hackney more than a third of under 11s are receiving free meals. The Merseyside borough of Knowsley is the only local authority with a higher rate.

In Southwark, a fifth of children are claiming free meals, a slight increase on last year.  But the numbers are down in Lewisham and Westminster, and the largest decrease took place in Islington where 29% of pupils are claiming school meal benefits, down from 38% last year, but still the third highest rate in the capital.

Free school meals primary

The trend is similar among secondary school pupils. On average, 13% of children over 11 are on the free meal scheme across England. The rate is similar in Outer London but significantly higher within inner London, with more than 40% in Tower Hamlets and 30% in Hackney and Islington. In Camden and Lambeth it is around a quarter of secondary school children.

Free school meals secondary-2

London varies hugely with outer areas pushing the capital average down.  Boroughs in the South West score as low or lower than many other parts of the country, with both Kingston upon Thames and Richmond upon Thames averaging less than 9% for students below the age of 16 claiming free school meals.

Free school meals are available to children from families who are claiming other types of benefit for unemployment or low income.  In 2013 the government extended the scheme so that all children in reception, year 1 and year 2 at state primary schools, ie all children under 8, receive free meals.  From year 3 onwards families must register and make a claim.

Entitlement to free school meals is commonly used as an indicator for children living in poverty. But many who are entitled to the benefit do not claim, a reluctance sometimes attached to social stigma. In London this year 215,000 children are judged to be eligible but only 180,000 are receiving free meals.

Source data

See also

105,000 extra secondary pupils pose huge challenge for capital’s schools

85% of children in private school in one area of West London

Schools data reveals ethnic mix with fall in proportion of white British pupils

 

Election Issues: Balancing economic success with green ambitions

urban sunsetWhoever becomes London’s new mayor is going to have economic growth and improvement of the environment at the top of their agenda.  But are these two goals compatible?

In 2011 the Mayor set out a climate change strategy that aimed to reduce CO2 emissions to 60% of what they were in 1990 by 2025[1]. 1990 is an internationally recognised baseline that countries used in signing the Kyoto agreement.

2015 is the first big milestone in the Mayor’s plan. By the end of last year emissions should have been down by 20% on 1990 level.  But the most recent data for greenhouse gases in London shows that the capital is off course to hit this target[2].  In 2013 a reduction of only 11% had been achieved. This is better than the 10% of 2012 but falls short of the 13% achieved in 2011.

A breakdown of this number shows the challenge.  Roughly 40% of CO2 emissions come from homes, 40% from workplaces and 20% from transport.  But a fast-growing population, booming economy and a skyline filled with cranes make all three of these categories difficult. Per capita emissions have fallen by 28% since 1990, but that growing population means the total improvement has been much lower.

Not surprisingly, the growth in population has made domestic emissions the toughest to cut, down just 7% since 1990.

Environment chart 1-2

Despite all this, London has the lowest CO2 emissions per head in the UK.  That’s partly down to the way we live.  An example is London’s fastest growing borough, Tower Hamlets.  Not only has it London’s lowest car ownership level – at just 15 per 100 population compared to 49 in nearby Havering[3].  It also has far more energy efficient homes.  Looking at Domestic Energy Performance Certificates, London has 11% of homes in A or B categories compared to 9% across the UK[4].  Tower Hamlets has 27% of homes in these categories – largely due to a concentration of flats, especially new build.

Environment Chart 2-2

A nice side benefit for Tower Hamlets residents comes with their fuel bills – they have the lowest domestic gas consumption in the capital[5].

Recently, the London environment debate has shifted from CO2 greenhouse gases to the air quality issue of NO2.  This came to a head last year with the VW scandal, where drivers hoping to prevent climate change found themselves creating potentially lethal local health hazards.  A report from King’s College estimated that almost 10,000 Londoners were being killed by air pollution each year; most as a result of NO2 emissions[6].

A further study from Policy Exchange[7] estimated that just under a half of NO2 emissions come from road transport – the rest a mix of air and rail transport with domestic and commercial gas use.  In central London buses emerge as a particular issue, together with the gas used to fuel the city centre’s offices and shops.

In 2013, only two of London’s 32 boroughs (Sutton and Bromley) met the annual mean limit on NO2[8], and it took only the first week of 2016 for Putney High Street and Oxford Street to break their annual maximum limit for the whole year[9].

So what effect does air quality have across the capital?  The Kings College study breaks down its estimate of deaths attributable to air pollution by borough. This shows Barnet, Bromley and Croydon with the greatest impact, all having over 400 deaths per annum.

Environment Chart 3-2

Such statistics place huge pressure upon the Mayor to find ways for Londoners to breathe more easily.  The key responsibility of the Mayor’s role is to make London a better place for everyone to live. He or she has to ensure that businesses thrive so the economy of the city grows and delivers jobs while also improving London’s environment.   Achieving either is a huge task. Achieving both simultaneously will be a monumental challenge for whichever candidate wins office.

Source data

[1] https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/environment-publications/delivering-londons-energy-future-mayors-climate

[2] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/interim-leggi–2013/resource/4aaba9fa-b382-40bd-a3e3-593c53bed245

[3]  http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/licensed-vehicles-type-0

[4] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/domestic-energy-efficiency-ratings-borough

[5] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gas-consumption-borough

[6] http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/HIAinLondon_KingsReport_14072015_final.pdf

[7] http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/publications/category/item/up-in-the-air-how-to-solve-london-s-air-quality-crisis-part-1

[8] http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2015-06-26.4471.h&s=speaker%3A11878#g4471.q0

[9] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/air-quality-summary-statistics

This report was produced in association with London Live’s election special programme London Votes.

Mayoral Election Issues: The Housing Shortage

roofer colourThe population is 8.6 million and the city is struggling with a shortage of housing.  Sounds familiar?  While this describes London today it also portrays the capital in the late 1930s.

After a post-war decline, the population has just got back to the 30s peak and a housing crisis has come back too.  So what has happened to house building in the intervening years? How did London find itself with a similar problem?

First, a bit of urban history. The shape of the capital has changed. In 1939 far more people lived in central London – 4.4 million lived in inner boroughs while 4.1 lived in outer ones[1].  The most highly populated areas were Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Lambeth, and can be seen as the darker areas on the map.

House bulding map 1-2

By 2015, the population of inner boroughs had fallen by 1 million while the outer boroughs have swelled by 24% to 5.1 million.  The most highly populated areas today are Barnet, Croydon and Ealing.

House building map 2-2

This switch in population from inner to outer came about because of house building.  The population surge of the 30s was met with a surge in building, and most of it took place in outer areas[2].

House building chart 3-2

This lure of new housing in the suburbs and the loss of central London housing in the Blitz helped reshape the capital.

In the last decade fewer homes were built than in the 1960s and 70s, when the population was shrinking. House-building has failed to keep pace with the population.

Since 2002 London has seen a 21% increase in jobs and a 16% rise in population. Over the same period new homes have increased by 11%[3].

House building chart 4-2

The 11% figure disguises a stark difference between inner and outer boroughs and where those homes have been built. Data from the Department for Communities and Local Government shows that there has been a 37% increase in the number of homes in Tower Hamlets since 2001 and a 20% increase in Islington. But in the same period the growth rate in dwellings in 16 outer boroughs has been in single figures – with just 4% in Sutton and 2% in Merton.

house buidling map 5-2

This pattern of growth is a reversal of what happened through most of the 20th century when more than half of the new housing stock was provided in the outer boroughs.

This growth in inner areas is not uniform however. 28% of the housing stock in Tower Hamlets was built this century, the highest proportion anywhere in the UK. It has the space through the redevelopment of areas like Canary Wharf and Limehouse.  Kensington and Chelsea in contrast has seen a 2% growth in homes due to the lack of brownfield sites.

The building in inner London means these areas are becoming more densely packed. Housing density is measured in dwellings per hectare. The average for England as a whole is 1.8. The average rate for London is 21.5[4]. For Inner London it is more than double that again at 44.6. And for Kensington and Chelsea, the borough with London’s highest, it is 69.1 dwelling per hectare.  The lowest density is Havering with 8.7 dwellings per hectare.  Havering is 10 times larger than Kensington and Chelsea. If it were to have the same dwelling density as the Royal borough it would have nearly 800,000 homes not the 100,000 it has currently.

As in the 1930s, the location of home building is pulling the population.  The biggest rate of growth in the past 12 months is in the City of London, but the numbers are small. After that it is Tower Hamlets where there has been at a 2.3% rise in residents in a year.

The GLA’s forecast for the next 25 years[5] shows that Tower Hamlets will lead the growth in residents, closely followed by Newham as many head east in search of a home.

House buidling map 6-2

But can building keep pace with demand?   New home starts are climbing back towards where they were 10 years ago, but it is still not enough and the problem is widely acknowledged. In his housing strategy document last year[6], the outgoing Mayor, Boris Johnson, said that housing was an “epic challenge” and that the number of new homes being built in the capital would need to double to 42,000 per year for the next 20 years to keep pace with population growth.

House building in the capital has been bumping along at around the 20,000 level for the past 10 years[7]. Following the financial crisis of 2008 it dipped sharply.

House building chart 7-2

Most of the homes being built are in the private sector, not social housing, which raises issues about affordability. Even in the ‘affordable’ sector a shift has taken place.

More affordable housing was delivered in London in the 2014-15 financial year than for any period dating back to 1991[8]. 17,913 homes were built or acquired and made available (so not counted in the new starts chart above) in the affordable rented sector, according to data from the Department for Communities and Local Government, and the GLA.

Affordable rents were previously available through what was termed social housing. This is rented property provided by a council or a housing association with long, secure tenancies and rents at around 50% of the market rates.

Housing associations also provided Intermediate rental.  This gives a tenant a subsidised rent, usually around 60% of the market rate, while they save for a deposit to buy the property.

In 2010 the government introduced a new category, which it confusingly called Affordable Rent.  This aimed to give social landlords a route to maintaining or increasing the amount of lower cost rental while relying less on public funding. It allows them to charge more and have less restrictive tenancies.  Affordable Rent properties can charge up to 80% of the market rate.

It is this sector that has taken off in the past year, increasing the amount of affordable housing, but the amount of Social Rent housing has declined sharply since AR was introduced.  And this is not due to the building of new stock alone. Some Social Rent property is re-classified as Affordable Rent when it becomes vacant.

House building chart 8-2

The last time the delivery of affordable housing was at this level was in 2011-12.  In that year a comparable number of Intermediate Rent properties were made available.  But there were 11,374 Social Rent homes. In 2014-15 that had been reduced to 3,053[9].

All candidates are making pledges about houses but perhaps the voters’ decisions on the housing issue comes down to the answers to 3 simple questions.  How many houses will you build, what sort of homes will they be and where will you build them?

Sources

[1] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[2] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[3] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[4] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[5] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[6] https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/housing-and-land/housing-strategy/mayors-housing-strategy

[7] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[8] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[9] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

This report was produced in association with London Live’s election special programme London Votes

 

 

Suicide rises but London still has the lowest rates in England

despairThe number of people committing suicide is at its highest this century.  The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows that 5,122 people took their own lives in 2014, the most since 1999.

551 of them were in London, where the rate of suicide went up by 4% on the previous year.  But the longer term trend is down and the capital has the lowest suicide rates of any region in England and Wales.

Men are more than 3 times more likely than women to kill themselves.  The general rate of suicide in the London is 8.3 per 100,000 people. For men it is 13.2 and for women 3.8. For both genders, London has the lowest rates.

Suicide rate national

The figures include all people over 15 who are officially recorded by a coroner to have committed suicide, or whose death has been caused by an undetermined injury.  The ONS combines these to get an accurate suicide rate as research has shown that most of the undetermined deaths are likely to be suicides.

The increase in London between 2013 to 2014 was largely caused by higher numbers in Southwark, Barnet, Haringey and Croydon.

The City of London has by far the highest rate, but this is based on a very small number of people. Outside the City, Haringey had the highest rate in 2014, followed by Islington, Tower Hamlets, Southwark and Hammersmith and Fulham.

Suicide rate map

 

Rates are a lot lower in outlying boroughs including Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow, Richmond and Kingston.

Source data

See also

Low drug-related death rates hide middle-aged heroin problem

Anxious, unhappy, dissatisfied with life? Perhaps you live in Hackney or Barking?

Well-being and wealth – how South West London soars ahead of the rest

For help and more information about suicide contact Samaritans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

London’s unique language landscape where 26% don’t speak English at home

crowd backs turnedMore than a quarter of Londoners don’t speak English at home.  The latest figures, for 2015, show that the proportion of people who choose another language as their first choice for speaking to family has risen to 26%.

This is a uniquely London phenomenon. Across the UK the rate is just 8.5%.  It is highest in the West Midland, where there is a significant immigrant population and in Wales, where Welsh speakers affect the numbers.

Not speaking English chart

The figures from the Office for National Statistics, based upon its Labour Force Survey,  reveal that in Newham 58% of people are using a language other than English at home. As previous data analysis by Urbs has shown, Newham is home to London’s largest Pakistani community and a significant Indian-born population.

In neighbouring Tower Hamlets, 41% are choosing another language at home above English.  The borough has the largest number of Bangladeshi-born people in the capital.

Not speaking English map

In north London, 45% in Harrow and 43% in Brent will speak other languages ahead of English among the family.  Both boroughs have large Indian-born populations.

Ealing is home to London’s largest Polish-born population, and a significant Indian-born community, which may explain why 38% of people use a language other than English at home.

The rates are only at or below the national average in 2 boroughs, Richmond and Havering.

According to the latest population estimates, 37% of Londoners, or 3 million people, were foreign-born while 23% or 2 million people are not British citizens.

This is leading to a multi-lingual city full of bi-lingual people.  Department of Education data, reported by Urbs, shows that nearly half the primary school children and 40% of the secondary pupils in London do not speak English as their first language. In some boroughs three quarters of the students speak English as a second language.

The concern for social inclusion is those who speak no English at all. Data from the last census in 2011 revealed that there are 45,000 people, mostly women, who say that they cannot speak the language.  The Prime Minister has announced a £20 million programme of English tuition but was criticised for his targeting of Muslim women, although they are the largest group.

Source data

See also

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

East London likely focal point for PM’s English tuition for Muslim women

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

East London likely focal point for PM’s English tuition for Muslim women

flag waving-2Almost 40% of the Muslim women who speak little or no English, targeted by David Cameron for language lessons, are living in London.

East London boroughs will need to be a particular focal point of the PM’s £20 million language tuition fund as around a third of Muslim women in Tower Hamlets and Hackney have English difficulties. Across the capital 17% of Muslim women speak little or no English.  They far outnumber the men.

Data from the 2011 census, which asked people about their religion and proficiency in English, shows that there are nearly 100,000 Muslims in London who say that their English is poor.  63% of them are women, the same proportion as for England.

A further 19,000 speak no English at all.  75% or 14,000 are women.  The majority are over 45.

No English Muslims

These figures also show that more than 2,000 of the non-English speaking Muslims are school-age children between 3 and 15.

Urbs looked at the data at borough level for Muslim women who are unable to speak any English. They are concentrated in East London in Tower Hamlets and Newham.

No English map

The Prime Minister has been criticised for singling out Muslim women in his pronouncement on the need for more English tuition to help combat extremism. Many people pointed out that his government previously cut the budget for English tuition for migrants.  While Muslim women are the largest group, people of other faiths also lack a command of English.

The census data shows that the second biggest faith group for non English speakers is Christians. More than 12,000 do not speak English, quite evenly divided between men and women. There are also more than 5,000 Hindus, largely women, who do not speak English.

non Englsih all faiths

The latest data for all these figures comes from 2011, since when there has been a large influx of people coming to work in the UK from Central and Southern Europe.  Many have limited ability in English.

The PM chose to target Muslim women in linking command of English with combating extremist views, but the broader problem of a lack of language skill and its impact upon society and the workforce may be a bigger, multi-faith or no faith problem.

Source data

See also

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce