The election in numbers

City Hall and Tower Bridge-22,596,961  The total number of votes cast, the largest ever for Mayor of London

1,310,143  Sadiq Khan’s winning number – the biggest haul by a winning candidate

468,318  Second preference votes for Sian Berry.  The Green Party candidate established herself as the Becks beer of politicians – the default second choice for most people

381,862  The people who forgot or decided against a second choice.  There’s also the 220,311 who were so certain they voted for the first choice as their second choice too

4941 London couldn’t find the love for the One Love Party and its candidate Ankit Love trailed in last with the lowest vote recorded by a candidate since mayoral elections began in 2000.

45 The percentage turnout, matching the record set in 2008

Source data

Left turn – the election shows further shift in the way the capital votes

How London’s population boom helped Sadiq Khan to victory

A last verdict on Boris shows satisfaction at its lowest ever level

Neck and neck in the race to replace Boris

Labour’s Sadiq Khan and the Conservative’s Zac Goldsmith are running neck and neck in the race to be London Mayor, according to polling organisation You Gov.

A survey of a little over 1,000 Londoners gave Khan 29% of the support to Goldsmith’s 28%. But with 44% saying they were not sure who would make the best Mayor it is all to play for in the race to replace Boris. When the don’t knows are factored out it is 51/49 in Khan’s favour.

Looking at the detailed breakdown, Sadiq Khan gets a more favourable response from women. Zac Goldsmith has more support among older voters.

With a margin or error of 3 points it is hard to separate Khan and Goldsmith in a number of the survey responses. They score closely on who would be best in a crisis and votes appear to find them equally likeable.

It is only when it comes to who is most in touch with ordinary people that there is some clear air between the candidate. Here Khan, the MP for Tooting and the son of a bus driver scores much better than Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond Park and son of a multi-millionaire.

The current Mayor, the Conservative Boris Johnson, has retained his popularity according to the GLA’s own polling, as reported here. But whether this legacy will rub off on Zac Goldsmith, also a bit of an outsider on a number of issues in the Conservative camp, will be key in the city which remained a Labour stronghold during the election in May.

The poll by YouGov, on behalf of the Evening Standard, is the first to be carried out since both the  candidates for the larger parties were confirmed. There are 6 others in the field including the Lib Dem Caroline Pidgeon, the Greens’ Sian Berry, Peter Whittle for UKIP, and 3 others. The election is on 5th May next year.

Poll data

See also

As Boris enter his final months, how happy have we been with the Mayor?

Lib Dem’s London collapse a consolation prize for Labour

Photo Zac Goldsmith, courtesy Policy Exchange

Photo Sadiq Khan, courtesy National Archive

 

 

 

 

As Boris enter his final months, how happy have we been with the Mayor?

Boris Johnson-2The Mayor appears to be as popular today as he was on the day he was first elected in May 2008. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, or Boris as the city knows him, won 53.2% of the vote to beat Labour’s Ken Livingstone to the job over 7 years ago. His satisfaction rating last month, according to GLA polling, was 53%.

For an elected politician to maintain his rating with the public might be seen as something of an achievement, but there have been a few peaks and troughs along the way. The GLA has been commissioning the polling company ICM to ask questions of a panel of 1,000 Londoners since April 2009 and in each poll they ask about satisfaction with the Mayor.

Back in April 2009 Boris was less than a year into the role and his satisfaction rating had risen slightly above his share of the vote to 55%. But 12 months later things were on the slide. In March 2010 he hit his rating low point with just 49% of survey respondents saying they were satisfied or fairly satisfied with the job he was doing.

That job, as London’s chief executive is defined as promoting economic development and wealth creation, social development, and improvement of the environment. He also has responsibilities for culture and tourism.

March 2010 was the only time in the polling that the Mayor’s rating has dipped below 50%. He was re-elected to office in May 2012, though his share of the vote was shaved to 51.5%.

Boris popularity

 

But help was on the horizon in the shape of the London Olympics. His prominent role led to a huge ratings boost and his highest score of 64% satisfied with the job he was doing was achieved in the autumn after the Olympics.

Boris has now descended from those Olympian heights and is currently sitting at 53% again. He will leave office next spring and the battle lines are being drawn to replace him with the election in May. The survey data over the past 6 years shows that the Mayor’s popularity tends to dip during the 2nd quarter of the year – April to June.

Boris per Q

Whether that dip will have an impact on the man who wants to carry the Conservative flag after the Mayor, Zac Goldsmith, or whether it impacts all politician, including Labour’s Sadiq Khan, the Lib Dem Caroline Pidgeon, the Greens’ Sian Berry and the 4 other candidates, is not clear.

One thing is certain from London’s relationship with the Mayor however – after a Ken and a Boris, whoever gets the job will need to be high profile enough that just a first name will do.

Source data

See also

Lib Dem’s London collapse a consolation prize for Labour

Financial sector’s post election confidence helps city pip NY to top ranking