New workers stick together and head north of river as they settle in the capital

Larger numbers of new overseas workers coming to the capital are settling north of the river than south with Newham and Brent as the favourite destinations.

334,419 people from overseas registered for a National Insurance number, allowing them to work or claim benefits, in the financial year 2014/15. More than 50,000 are in Newham and Brent, but there are more than 10,000 in 13 of the 20 boroughs north of the river.

The City of London has the highest rate as a proportion of the working age population, but the numbers are small. Newham and Brent stand out clearly, and the top 10 are all north of the river areas.

NI top 10 boroughs

In contrast, 8 of the 10 boroughs with the lowest proportions are south of the river.

NI bottom 10 boroughsNew arrivals from Romania are driving the Newham and Brent numbers. Romanians were allowed free access to the UK labour market from the beginning of 2014. In the financial year 2014/15 nearly 67,000 have settled in London and registered for NI. That’s 20% of all registrations in London.

As our map shows, there are more than 8,000 in both Newham and Brent. That’s around a third of all new overseas NI registrations in each of those boroughs. As previously reported by Urbs, these are the areas that have the highest levels of Romanian born Londoners according to data from the last census in 2011.

NI Map Romanians-2

And it is not only Romanians who are choosing to join established national communities in London. Bulgarians, who also gained free movement to work in Britain in 2014, have predominantly settled in Haringey, Newham and Enfield. These are the three areas with the most Bulgarian-born Londoners according to the census.

Ni Map Bulgarians

The same story emerges for Poles. Ealing has more people from Poland than any other London borough according to the census data. It also has by far the most new NI registrations.

NI Map Poles

The group that bucks this trend is the Italians. 35,000 registered for NI in the past year, the biggest national group after Romanians. The census data shows that Italians living in London favour inner London boroughs with Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea as favourite. As our map shows, new arrivals are still living centrally but Tower Hamlets is the number one choice with Brent and Haringey also proving popular.

NI Map Italians

This shift in emphasis may be due to the changing nature and income level of a growing workforce seeking employment in London amid more difficult economic circumstances back home since the financial crisis.

Source data

See also

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce

The importance of the London factor in overseas worker numbers

London population maps

The importance of the London factor in overseas worker numbers

For many people arriving from overseas, London is the first choice as the place to settle and find work. The most recent full year figures for non-UK citizens registering for a National Insurance number show that 334,000 of the 820,000 are in London. That’s just over 40%.

But looking at the detailed breakdown for nationality groups and the historic patterns show that some nationalities are more London-centric than others.

The biggest new factor in the data for 2014/15 is the rise in the number from Romania and Bulgaria, the so-called A2 European countries. They joined the EU in 2007 but restrictions were placed upon free movement to the UK until the start of 2014.

Anyone seeking to work or claim benefits in the UK needs a National Insurance number, and in the first full year of access to the UK 152,00 Romanians and 40,000 Bulgarians applied.

66,000 Romanians chose London as their base. That is 44%. The South East was the second most popular choice.

NI Romanians UK

About the same proportion of Bulgarians decided upon the capital. The South East, East and West Midlands are other favourite locations, as they are with Romanians.

NI Bulgarians UK

The biggest group of overseas workers in the UK is from Poland. Poland joined the EU in 2004 as one of the so-called A8 countries of Eastern Europe. But the pattern of NI registrations by Poles shows they are far less focused on London. In 2004/05 when free access began 61,000 came but a little less than a third settled in London.  Numbers went up in the following years, but the rate fell and currently stands at 21%.

The other growing group of arrivals in the London labour market is Southern Europeans. In 2014/15 35,000 Italians registered for NI in London. That’s 60% of the total for the UK. And a pattern of London largely favoured over over the rest of the UK  can be seen over the past 10 years.

Since the economic crisis of 2008 the numbers of workers from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece have risen. Italy and Spain have traditionally been first choice labour markets for Romanians, so their numbers arriving in the UK may be linked to the poor economic situation in Southern Europe.

Data for the next few years will reveal whether Romanians and Bulgarians will follow the A8 pattern with significant numbers working in locations across the UK or if they will remain more  London-centric like Southern Europeans.

Source data

See also

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce

Where in the world would you like to work?

 

 

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce

The release of the latest data on National Insurance registrations by people from overseas offers a good insight into economic migration into the UK. The headlines on the release of the data focused on the rise in Romanians. That was certainly the case, but the detailed data and longer-term trends show the changing patterns of new arrivals and give clues as to what drives people to come or stops them from doing so.

The financial year 2014-15 saw a substantial jump in the number of people from outside the UK seeking to work in London. The number registering for a National Insurance number in the capital was up by 38% on the previous year to 334,419. That’s around 40% of total registrations for the UK.

Anyone looking to work in the UK or claim a benefit needs an NI number, including the self-employed or students working part time. Although people may have been in the UK some time before they apply for a NI registration the data is seen as a useful proxy for migration rates and has the benefit of being based on hard figures rather than the survey estimates used to calculate migration totals.

The biggest and the fastest growing group are Romanians. Registrations in London increased by 200% in year, rising from 22,000 in 2013-14 to 67,000 in 2014-15.

NI all overseas

Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 but were not allowed free access to work in the UK given to other EU citizens until January 2014. The number of Bulgarian registrations in London went up to a little over 18,000, a rise of 178%.

The figures show that it is not just the new members of the EU that are increasingly coming to London but people from southern Europe. After Romanians the biggest single national group last year were the 35,000 Italians.

NI leading nations

The historical data shows how there has been a strong and sustained growth in people coming to work in London from southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) since the economic crisis of 2008.

The economic woes in southern Europe that has pushed many of its workers to the UK may also be a factor influencing the decision of Romanians and Bulgarians to come. Traditionally Romanians have headed primarily to Spain and Italy to find work outside their own country.

The change to restriction, allowing access to the UK labour market, is the trigger for the 2014 spike in what the EU refers to as the A2 countries (Romania and Bulgaria) but that spike may be sharper due to economic circumstances in their preferred southern European labour markets.

The cumulative totals for workers from Spain, Italy and Romania show the southern Europe effect. The spike in 2014 for Romanians may have been a more gradual rise since the economic downturn since 2008 if the restrictions had not been in place.

NI Sp It Rom cumulative

For the EU’s co called A8 nations, the Eastern European states of Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, the trend is steady over recent years. Led by workers from Poland registrations soared after they joined the EU in 2004. The financial crisis in 2008 led to a drop in arrivals but that there has been a gradual increase since then as the UK economy recovered.

Workers coming from Europe are the dominant overseas groups in London. In 2009/10 they accounted for 40% of London registrations. By last year that had increased to 78%.

The data for Asian registrations helps explain this change. NI registrations by people from Asia had climbed steeply in 2009 but fell sharply from 2011 onwards as the Cameron government introduced new restrictions on migrants that applied only to those from outside the EU.

Figures for the first quarter of this financial year (April – June) show registrations from Romania and Bulgaria continue to be a dominant factor. If the trend for the A8 nations from Eastern Europe is repeated then this will continue to be the story for the next few years.

Source data

See also

The importance of the London factor in overseas worker numbers

New workers stick together and head north of river as they settle in the capital

Where in the world would you like to work?

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

 

 

More than a quarter of UK tax revenue generated in London

£20 notes-1

The budget makes everyone focus on how the tax burden falls on individuals, but what does it look like as a national picture? New research has developed a tax map of Britain that reveals where the money is generated, and it reveals the importance of cities, particularly London, in generating the country’s tax take.

In 2013/14 London generated £126 billion in tax, that’s a quarter of all the economy taxes generated in the country. Other cities generated £182 billion and non-urban areas £170 billion.

The Centre for Cities, a policy institute, looked at what is referred to as economy taxes. These include taxes on labour, such as income tax and national insurance; tax on consumption, in other words VAT; taxes on land and property, such as stamp duty and council tax; and taxes on investment. These make up 87% of the UK tax revenue and exclude things like duty on alcohol and tobacco. The total for economy taxes generated in the UK is £478 billion.

London produces 26% of the economy taxes, twice as high as it’s share of population, which is around 13%. And some London boroughs make an even more startling contribution. The City of London and Westminster generate £44 billion in tax, almost a tenth of all revenues.


See also

How London boroughs will rival the ‘Northern Powerhouse’

Economic clout helps London to another global cities crown


Much of London’s contribution is driven by the very high tax raised per worker through income tax and national insurance. London levels are much higher than those across the country and in the City of London are 3 times higher than average urban levels.

tax per worker

The borough of Tower Hamlets includes the financial services centre of Canary Wharf.

The Centre for Cities assigned taxes on labour to the location of the work not the home residence of the worker, hence the City with a small number of residents and a high numbers of workers generates a high level of taxes. Commuters into London account for around 16% of the capital’s tax generated from labour.

The tax mapping also revealed that some London areas have tax raising profiles very different from the national picture. While the City is dominated by labour taxes, a large proportion of Kensington and Chelsea’s contribution is made up of land and property tax.

tax profiles

This is a product of the high cost London property market and is predominantly stamp duty. London accounts for more than 40% of the stamp duty in the UK and Kensington and Chelsea along with neighbouring Westminster contributed 32% of the capital’s stamp duty in 2013/14.

Source data