EU Referendum: The country has spoken but the capital disagrees

Big Ben cloudsLondon bucked the national trend and voted 60/40 in favour of remaining in the EU. 27 of the 33 boroughs voted to remain, and in some central areas the vote to stay in the EU was much higher – 79% in Lambeth, 78% in Hackney and 76% in Haringey.

London is part of a small club that includes Scotland and Northern Ireland as the nations and regions of the country that voted to stay in. But with a UK-wide vote 52% in favour of leaving it will have no impact.

Central London boroughs are the most determinedly pro-EU areas in the country.  The vote to Remain was  75% or over in seven boroughs – Haringey, Islington, Camden, Hackney, City of London, Lambeth and Wandsworth. This level of support is only matched by the 74% in Edinburgh and East Renfrewshire in Scotland, 74% in West Belfast and 78% in Foyle in Northern Ireland. But the Remain win in a few areas was much narrower – just 51% in Bromley and Hounslow.

Remain share-2

Five boroughs voted Leave – Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Havering, Sutton and Hillingdon.  The winning margin in these areas was not as emphatic as the mostly staunchly Remain boroughs but Leave won 70% of the vote in Havering, 63% in Bexley and 62% in Barking and Dagenham.

Leave share-2

The vote shows how the EU argument went across the traditional political divide. Bexley is traditional Conservative territory while Sutton has a Conservative member of parliament  and one of the few Liberal Democrat MPs.  Barking and Dagenham is Labour territory with influential party figures Margaret Hodge and Jon Cruddas as its MPs.

Hillingdon includes the constituency of the former Mayor and Leave camp leader, Boris Johnson.  But it also includes the area that since 1997 has chosen as its MP the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnel, a key ally of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Turnout in London was 69.7%, a little below the national level of 72.2%, with 3.77 million people voting. 2.26 million voted Remain, 1.51 million voted Leave. 1.64 million Londoners failed to vote.

Turnout EU-2

The highest turnout was 82% in Richmond, the lowest, 59% in Newham.  Turnout was above 70% in 15 boroughs and above 75% in 6, including three that voted Leave – Bexley, Havering and Sutton and three that voted Remain – Bromley, Kingston and Richmond.

EU Referendum: London results
REMAIN LEAVE
Barking and Dagenham 27,270 (38%) 46,130 (62%)
Barnet 100,210 (62%) 60,823 (38%)
Bexley 47,603 (37%) 80,886 (63%)
Brent 72,523 (62%) 48,881 (48%)
Bromley 92,398 (51%) 90,034 (49%)
Camden 71,295 (75%) 23,838 (25%)
City of London 3,312 (75%) 1.087 (25%)
Croydon 92,913 (54%) 78,221 (46%)
Ealing 90,024 (60%) 59,017 (40%)
Enfield 76,425 (56%) 60,481 (44%)
Greenwich 65,248 (56%) 52,117 (44%)
Hackney 83,398 (78%) 22,868 (22%)
Hammersmith and Fulham 56,188 (70%) 24,054 (30%)
Haringey 79,991 (76%) 25,855 (24%)
Harrow 64,042 (55%) 53,183 (45%)
Havering 42,201 (30%) 96,885 (70%)
Hillingdon 58,040 (44%) 74,982 (56%)
Hounslow 58,755 51% 56,321 (49%)
Islington 76,420 (75%) 25,180 (25%)
Kensington and Chelsea 37,601 (69%) 17,138 (31%)
Kingston 52,533 (62%) 32,737 (38%)
Lambeth 111,584 (79%) 30,340 (21%)
Lewisham 86,955 (70%) 37,518 (30%)
Merton 63,003 (63% 37097 (37%)
Newham 55,328 (53%) 49,371 (47%)
Redbridge 69,213 (54%) 59.020 (46%)
Richmond 75,396 (70%) 33,410 (30%)
Southwark 94,293 (73%) 35,209 (27%)
Sutton 49,319 (46%) 57,241 (54%)
Tower Hamlets 73,011 (68%) 35,224 (32%)
Waltham Forest 64,156 (59%) 44,395 (41%)
Wandsworth 118,463 (75%) 39,421 (25%)
Westminster 53,928 (69%) 24,268 (31%)

Source data

See also

A tenth of Londoners won’t get a vote but may feel the impact of the EU referendum

Left turn – the election shows further shift in the way the capital votes

A tenth of Londoners won’t get a vote but may feel the impact of the EU referendum

flag waving-2For a tenth of the people who live in London the debate about whether the UK should leave the EU has a very different dynamic.  They are the 860,000 people from the 27 EU nations who live and work in the capital.  For them the question is not about the future of the UK should it decide to leave, but whether a UK outside the EU would mean that many of them would have to go home if the UK restricted free movement of labour.

The most detailed guide to the various groups of EU nationals in London is the 2011 census which showed that there were 711,000 people living in the capital who were born in EU nations. The most recent population estimates show that this had grown to 860,000 by 2014.

The largest growth is in the so-called A2 nations, Romania and Bulgaria, who were allowed free access to work in the UK at the start of 2014.  Between 2011 and 2014 their numbers went up by 60% to 116,000.

The countries from the old Eastern block, the so-called A8 nations, which includes Poland, experienced the lowest rate of growth of 10.5% between 2011 and 2014.

The core EU nations, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain, grew by 20%, driven largely by people coming from southern Europe, as previously reported by Urbs.

The Annual Population Survey does not break down population groups below 10,000 so there is no precise data for 9 of the EU nations.  Of the remaining 18 only 2, Ireland and Germany have a lower population now than in 2011.

Romania is the country with the largest increase in numbers from 2011 to 2014, but the largest growth rate is in people from Latvia, up by 143% and Denmark, up 103%.

EU pop numbers table

The largest groups of non-UK EU citizens in London are people from Poland and Ireland.

There are 178.000 Poles in London, up from 158,000 in 2011. Polish people have come to live and work across the UK and less than a quarter of them are based in London. The census shows that most have settled in Ealing, Haringey, Brent and Houslow.

Born Poland

The Irish also favour Ealing and Brent. There were 130,000 in London in 2011 but the most recent estimate is that has fallen to 100,000.

Born in Ireland

Romanians now make up the third largest EU group in London. Their numbers have swelled from 45,000 at the time of the census to 84,000 in 2014, when they were allowed to come to the UK freely to work.  The census data shows that most were living in Brent, Harrow and Newham.

Born in Romania

The fourth largest European group currently are Italians. The 2014 population survey showed there were 79,000 living in London compared to 62,000 at the time of the census in 2011. At that time there were more French people than Italians, 64,000 of them, but  the French population has grown more gently since, to 72,000 in 2014.

Born in Italy

Born in France

After France and Italy the sixth largest population is from another core EU member, Germany. The 2014 survey indicates there are 52,000 in the capital, down from 55,000 in 2011.

Born in Germany

Financial problems in Southern Europe lie behind the rise in migration from Spain and Greece. Both countries saw a rise in their populations in London between 2011 and 2014 with an increase of 8,000 Spaniards and 10,000 Greeks.

Born in Greece

Born in Spain

Lithuanians were the 9th largest group in 2014 and their numbers have gone up slightly since 2011. The much bigger growth from the Baltic states is people from Latvia. At the time of the 2011 census the largest portion of the 9,500 were in Newham, alongside the Lithuanians. There are now more than 24,000 Latvians in the capital.

Born in Lithuania

 

Latvia map

Estonia map

Bulgarians, like Romanian were allowed to work freely in the UK from 2014.  Their numbers have risen more modestly from 27,000 to 32,000.  In 2011, the largest groups of Bulgarians were found in Haringey, Waltham Forest and Newham.

Born in Bulgaria

The Republic of Cyprus is an EU member so all Cypriots have EU status, including those from the north of the island, which is not controlled by the government.  London’s Cypriot commnity is heavily concentrated in Enfield.

Cyprus map

The Portuguese population has grown more modestly than other Southern Eurpeans countries since the census. In 2011 the population was focused around Stockwell in the borough of Lambeth.

born in portugal

 

Hungary was one of the A8 nations that gained EU membership in 2004.  The UK allowed A8 nations immediate access to the work here. In 2011 there were just under 18,00o. That has risen by 4,000.

Hungary map

In 2011 the Dutch numberd around the same as the Hungarians.  The population had grown to 19,000 by 2014.

 

Born in Netherlands

The number of Danes in London has more than doubled since 2011, though they still only number 16,000.  There used to be twice as many Swedes as Danes in London but the Danes now outnumber their fellow Scandinavians.

Born in Denmark

Born in Sweden

The Czech Republic has about twice the population of its former national bedfellow, Slovakia, but in London the Slovaks outnumber the Czechs. The data from the 2011 census shows they tend to live in the same neighbourhoods.

Slovakia map

 

Czech map

The Annual Population Survey doesn’t carry details on the smaller populations  from the EU nations but from the census we can see how they were spread across London in 2011.

Belgium map

Austria map

Finland map

Malta map

Croatia map

Slovenia mapLuxembourg

 

Source data

See also

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

London’s unique language landscape where 26% don’t speak English at home

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

 

The importance of the London factor in overseas worker numbers

For many people arriving from overseas, London is the first choice as the place to settle and find work. The most recent full year figures for non-UK citizens registering for a National Insurance number show that 334,000 of the 820,000 are in London. That’s just over 40%.

But looking at the detailed breakdown for nationality groups and the historic patterns show that some nationalities are more London-centric than others.

The biggest new factor in the data for 2014/15 is the rise in the number from Romania and Bulgaria, the so-called A2 European countries. They joined the EU in 2007 but restrictions were placed upon free movement to the UK until the start of 2014.

Anyone seeking to work or claim benefits in the UK needs a National Insurance number, and in the first full year of access to the UK 152,00 Romanians and 40,000 Bulgarians applied.

66,000 Romanians chose London as their base. That is 44%. The South East was the second most popular choice.

NI Romanians UK

About the same proportion of Bulgarians decided upon the capital. The South East, East and West Midlands are other favourite locations, as they are with Romanians.

NI Bulgarians UK

The biggest group of overseas workers in the UK is from Poland. Poland joined the EU in 2004 as one of the so-called A8 countries of Eastern Europe. But the pattern of NI registrations by Poles shows they are far less focused on London. In 2004/05 when free access began 61,000 came but a little less than a third settled in London.  Numbers went up in the following years, but the rate fell and currently stands at 21%.

The other growing group of arrivals in the London labour market is Southern Europeans. In 2014/15 35,000 Italians registered for NI in London. That’s 60% of the total for the UK. And a pattern of London largely favoured over over the rest of the UK  can be seen over the past 10 years.

Since the economic crisis of 2008 the numbers of workers from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece have risen. Italy and Spain have traditionally been first choice labour markets for Romanians, so their numbers arriving in the UK may be linked to the poor economic situation in Southern Europe.

Data for the next few years will reveal whether Romanians and Bulgarians will follow the A8 pattern with significant numbers working in locations across the UK or if they will remain more  London-centric like Southern Europeans.

Source data

See also

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce

Where in the world would you like to work?

 

 

What National Insurance really tells us about London’s overseas workforce

The release of the latest data on National Insurance registrations by people from overseas offers a good insight into economic migration into the UK. The headlines on the release of the data focused on the rise in Romanians. That was certainly the case, but the detailed data and longer-term trends show the changing patterns of new arrivals and give clues as to what drives people to come or stops them from doing so.

The financial year 2014-15 saw a substantial jump in the number of people from outside the UK seeking to work in London. The number registering for a National Insurance number in the capital was up by 38% on the previous year to 334,419. That’s around 40% of total registrations for the UK.

Anyone looking to work in the UK or claim a benefit needs an NI number, including the self-employed or students working part time. Although people may have been in the UK some time before they apply for a NI registration the data is seen as a useful proxy for migration rates and has the benefit of being based on hard figures rather than the survey estimates used to calculate migration totals.

The biggest and the fastest growing group are Romanians. Registrations in London increased by 200% in year, rising from 22,000 in 2013-14 to 67,000 in 2014-15.

NI all overseas

Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 but were not allowed free access to work in the UK given to other EU citizens until January 2014. The number of Bulgarian registrations in London went up to a little over 18,000, a rise of 178%.

The figures show that it is not just the new members of the EU that are increasingly coming to London but people from southern Europe. After Romanians the biggest single national group last year were the 35,000 Italians.

NI leading nations

The historical data shows how there has been a strong and sustained growth in people coming to work in London from southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) since the economic crisis of 2008.

The economic woes in southern Europe that has pushed many of its workers to the UK may also be a factor influencing the decision of Romanians and Bulgarians to come. Traditionally Romanians have headed primarily to Spain and Italy to find work outside their own country.

The change to restriction, allowing access to the UK labour market, is the trigger for the 2014 spike in what the EU refers to as the A2 countries (Romania and Bulgaria) but that spike may be sharper due to economic circumstances in their preferred southern European labour markets.

The cumulative totals for workers from Spain, Italy and Romania show the southern Europe effect. The spike in 2014 for Romanians may have been a more gradual rise since the economic downturn since 2008 if the restrictions had not been in place.

NI Sp It Rom cumulative

For the EU’s co called A8 nations, the Eastern European states of Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, the trend is steady over recent years. Led by workers from Poland registrations soared after they joined the EU in 2004. The financial crisis in 2008 led to a drop in arrivals but that there has been a gradual increase since then as the UK economy recovered.

Workers coming from Europe are the dominant overseas groups in London. In 2009/10 they accounted for 40% of London registrations. By last year that had increased to 78%.

The data for Asian registrations helps explain this change. NI registrations by people from Asia had climbed steeply in 2009 but fell sharply from 2011 onwards as the Cameron government introduced new restrictions on migrants that applied only to those from outside the EU.

Figures for the first quarter of this financial year (April – June) show registrations from Romania and Bulgaria continue to be a dominant factor. If the trend for the A8 nations from Eastern Europe is repeated then this will continue to be the story for the next few years.

Source data

See also

The importance of the London factor in overseas worker numbers

New workers stick together and head north of river as they settle in the capital

Where in the world would you like to work?

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

 

 

Over 50% of London babies have mothers born outside the UK

Baby hand

More than half the babies in London last year were born to mothers who were from outside the UK. Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that 58% of new Londoners had mothers who were born outside the UK.  That’s more than double the national rate as across the country non-UK mums account for 27% of births.

In 3 boroughs, Newham, Westminster and Brent, three quarters of the births were to mothers from outside the UK. Since 2004 Newham has had the highest rate in the country for births by women born overseas. Last year it was 76.4%.

The boroughs with the lowest rates of births to mothers born overseas are Havering, Bromley and Bexley. With 28% non UK-born mothers Havering comes closest to the national average.

Mothers born outside UK

National data shows that Poland, Pakistan and India are the most common countries of birth for mothers who are not UK-born. The Polish-born population of the UK has increased 10-fold in the past 10 years.

Of the 127,000 babies born in London in 2014, 25,000 had mothers born in Asia or the Middle East, 20,000 had mothers born in the EU, the majority in newer EU members, which includes Poland, and nearly 17,000 had mothers from Africa.

Across London the most common region of birth for mothers from outside the UK varies from borough to borough. In 6 of the 14 inner London boroughs, including Haringey and Islington, it is the EU. In 10 of the 19 outer London boroughs, including Hillingdon, Harrow, Redbridge and Sutton, it is Asia and the Middle East. For 8 boroughs, including Lewisham, Southwark and Barking and Dagenham, it is Africa.

Source data

See also

Muhammad and Amelia top London’s baby name charts, again

Fewer babies born last year but birth rates vary across city

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

Mapping Londoners: Born in Bulgaria

At the time of the last census in 2011 27,000 people identified themselves as born in Bulgaria. They were living mainly in North London, particularly Haringey and Waltham Forest, and in Newham in the east of the city.

Born in Bulgaria

Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 and restrictions placed on its citizens preventing them from coming freely to the UK to work were lifted at the beginning of 2014. The latest estimate in the Annual Population Survey suggests that their numbers had increased to 32,000 in 2014.

There has been a much greater increase in Romanian-born people coming to London, who were also allowed free movement into Britain at the same time.

Source data

More population maps