5 more boroughs will have a majority of BAME population in next 20 years

multi ethnic crowd bikeriderlondon shutterstock_150364787-1-2Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people will be in the majority in 12 of London’s 33 boroughs by 2036, according to population forecasts by the GLA.

Currently there is a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic majority in Newham, Brent, Tower Hamlets, Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow and Redbridge. By the end of the current decade there will be more BAME people than white people in Croydon, Barking and Dagenham, and Waltham Forest. By 2036 this will also be the case in Hillingdon and Lewisham.

BAME people are powering London’s population growth. Between the 2001 and 2011 census the population grew by 881,000. During the same period the white population fell by 300,000, despite the arrival of white EU migrants.

There are currently 8.6 million people living in London, 5 million of them are white. By 2041 the GLA expects their numbers to have risen by 10% to 5.5 million but the BAME population will grown by 36% from 3.6 to 4.9 million.

BAME White pop-2

The GLA forecasts that the biggest ethnic group will be from India. Black Africans overtook them at the time of the last census but they will become the biggest single group again by 2035, followed by Other Asians and Black Africans.

BAME trend-2

London will remain a city with a white majority population but the numbers vary in Inner and Outer areas. By 2041 BAME people will be 44% of the residents of inner boroughs and 49% of the population in outer areas.

Source data

See also

The Met fails to reflect the face of people it’s policing

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

The Met fails to reflect the face of people it’s policing

© 1000words | Dreamstime.com

Photo: © 1000words | Dreamstime.com

The ethnic make up of the Metropolitan Police is hugely out of line with the people it is policing. 3,729 of the Met’s 31,877 officers are classified as BME. That is 11.7% but the population of the capital is 40% black and ethnic.

Broken down by rank the numbers show an even more serious lack of representation at some levels. At Constable level 13% of officers are BME. But at senior level it is half that rate. Just 2 of the 29 Chief Officers, that’s the most senior people above the rank of Chief Superintendent, are black or minority ethnic by origin.

And there appears to be an even more serious problem among middle ranking officers. Only 2.7% of Chief Inspectors and 5.9% of Inspectors in the Met are black or other minority ethnic, according to the latest figures from the Home Office.

Police BME

The Metropolitan Police has the highest proportion of officers who identify themselves as Black or other Minority Ethnic of any force in England and Wales.

The rates are worse for the much smaller City of London force. 43 of its 739 officers are BME, that’s 5.8%. And there are none above the rank of Chief Inspector.  They are pollicing an areas where the resident population is is 22% black and other minority ethnic.

4 forces in England and Wales, Cheshire, Durham, North Yorkshire and Dyfed-Powys, have no black officers.

The Met has been trying to address the problem since the Macpherson Report into the investigation of the murder of black teenager Stephen Lawrence branded it as “institutionally racist”.

The proportion of BME officers has been increasing steadily but missing targets. In 2005 the proportion of BME officers was half the current rate at 6.9%. And recruitment of black officers has improved. In 2014 more than 500 recruits, or 16% of the total, were BME.

The Labour candidate for Mayor, Sadiq Khan, says that he would introduce a quota system to try to address the disparity.

Much more will need to be done before that faces of the Met and the City of London force reflect the populations that they are policing.

Source data

See also

Met reveals record on race discrimination: 245 complaints, no misconduct

Police Taser some young and elderly, and firing is up steeply in some areas

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Schools data reveals ethnic mix with fall in proportion of white British pupils

dreamstime_s_6081706London has long been an ethnically diverse city and data from primary schools reveal the recent trends in the population groups and where they live.

Over the past 7 years the proportion of primary school children who are classified as white British has gone down from 37% to 27%. In comparison, the average figure for the rest of England is 69%. The biggest change in any ethnic group over the period has been the increase in children classified as white non-British. This group has increased from 8.9% of primary age children in 2007 to 13.4% today and can be explained by the arrival of people from EU countries.

As our chart shows, there has also been an increase in children of mixed race and children classified as Asian. Most of the growth in the Asian group is in Pakistani children, rising from 3.7% in 2007 to 4.4% today. The proportion of Indian and Bangladeshi children has changed little.

Primary pupils ethnic mix

The proportion of Black children in primary schools has remained steady at around 20%. In 2007 African children were roughly twice the number of Caribbean children. Their numbers have grown and the proportion of children of Caribbean origin has fallen slightly.

Urbs used the data produced by the Department for Education to map the city, revealing the broad patterns of population.

There are significantly higher proportions of white British children in the outer boroughs in the south and the east. In Havering it is 68% yet in nearby Newham a tenth of that. There are high proportions of white British children in Bexley, Bromley, Sutton and Richmond.

Primary pupils white brit

The proportions of non-British white children are more evenly spread but with much higher concentrations in the northern boroughs of Enfield, Haringey, Brent and Waltham Forest.

Primary pupils white other

Asian families coming to London have long settled in the East End. That legacy lives on and 65% of primary pupils in Tower Hamlets are classified as Asian. Newham and Redbridge also have a high percentage of Asian children, as does Harrow in the north west of the city.

Primary pupils asian

The black population is more uniformly spread with highest proportions south of the river in Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham. Richmond and Kingston have very few black pupils.

Primary pupils black


Source data

See also:

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

London leads in places for poorer students

Private school? Depends where you live

London drives UK population growth