Diabetes in Ealing

Ealing has one of the worst records in London for diabetes and the number of sufferers will climb by 10,373 in the next 20 years, placing huge pressure on local health services, according to Public Health England.

There are currently 29,557 people with diabetes in the borough, up by 412 on last year. Some 10.7% of all the people living in Ealing have the condition, which is above the national rate of 8.6%. But forecasts by PHE, a government agency, show that by 2020 the rate will have gone up to 11.2% and in 2035 will hit 12.6%.

Diabetes 2035

The agency based its predictions on health surveys carried out over three years and focused on people over the age of 16. PHE says that around 90% of the new cases will be Type 2 diabetes, which is caused by lifestyle factors and linked to obesity. It says these cases are preventable and tackling the problem is fundamental to the future of the health service.

The increased prevalence of the condition coincides with a rise in the population of the capital in the coming decades. There will be 895,489 diabetes sufferers across London’s 33 boroughs by 2035, and 4.5% of them will live in Ealing .

Diabetes is caused by the inability of the body to regulate the amount of sugar in the blood. It is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart attack. Sufferers may also develop kidney disease and foot ulcers, which can lead to amputation.

Source data

More diabetes stories

Growth of preventable cases of diabetes threaten the health service

Obese copy

The number of people in London suffering from diabetes will rocket by 40% over the next 20 years, according to forecasts from Public Health England.

Its figures show that in 2016 there are 638,000 people over 16 with diabetes. But rising rates coupled with a growing population means that this will go up by more than a quarter of million to 895,000 by 2035.

PHE says that around 90% of the new cases will be Type 2 diabetes, which is caused by lifestyle factors and linked to obesity. It says these cases are preventable and tackling the problem is fundamental to the future of the health service.

John Newton of Public Health England said: “Developing diabetes in not an inevitable part of ageing.  We have the opportunity through public health to reverse this trend and safeguard the health of the nation and the future of the NHS.”

The PHE forecasts reveals a wide discrepancy in rates across the capital.  Brent has the highest rate of diabetes not only in London but in England with 11.5% of people with the condition today.  Kingston has the lowest rate in England at 6.7%.

The highest rates after Brent are in Harrow, Redbridge and Ealing. The lowest, apart from  Kingston, are in Richmond, Wandsworth and Islington.

Diabetes rate 2016

Both Brent and Kingston will retain their positions as the boroughs with the highest and lowest rates in England by 2035.  The rate in Brent will climb to 13.6% of the population.

The record in Ealing, Harrow and Redbridge will remain poor and Newham will be second only to Brent with a rate of 12.7%.

Kingston’s rate will rise to 7.6%, with neighbouring Richmond, plus Wandsworth and Islington remaining among the areas with lowest rates.

Diabetes 2035

The data shows a worsening situation throughout London over the next two decades.  Today there are seven boroughs where the prevalence of diabetes in the population is above 10%. By 2035 the rate is forecast to be one in ten or higher in 17 areas.

The biggest change in the rate of the condition between 2016 and 2035 is forecast to be in Tower Hamlets where the rate will go up by 24%.  The borough is also expected to see the biggest growth in population in the coming decades, as reported by Urbs. The combination of these factors will place severe pressure on local health services.

Diabetes is caused by the inability of the body to regulate the amount of sugar in the blood. It is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart attack. Sufferers may also develop kidney disease and foot ulcers, which can lead to amputation.

Source data

More diabetes stories

See also

Sportiest Londoners live in the wealthier south west boroughs

How the obesity rate doubled for the class of 2007

Size matters – and it depends where you live

 

Mayoral Election Issues: The Housing Shortage

roofer colourThe population is 8.6 million and the city is struggling with a shortage of housing.  Sounds familiar?  While this describes London today it also portrays the capital in the late 1930s.

After a post-war decline, the population has just got back to the 30s peak and a housing crisis has come back too.  So what has happened to house building in the intervening years? How did London find itself with a similar problem?

First, a bit of urban history. The shape of the capital has changed. In 1939 far more people lived in central London – 4.4 million lived in inner boroughs while 4.1 lived in outer ones[1].  The most highly populated areas were Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Lambeth, and can be seen as the darker areas on the map.

House bulding map 1-2

By 2015, the population of inner boroughs had fallen by 1 million while the outer boroughs have swelled by 24% to 5.1 million.  The most highly populated areas today are Barnet, Croydon and Ealing.

House building map 2-2

This switch in population from inner to outer came about because of house building.  The population surge of the 30s was met with a surge in building, and most of it took place in outer areas[2].

House building chart 3-2

This lure of new housing in the suburbs and the loss of central London housing in the Blitz helped reshape the capital.

In the last decade fewer homes were built than in the 1960s and 70s, when the population was shrinking. House-building has failed to keep pace with the population.

Since 2002 London has seen a 21% increase in jobs and a 16% rise in population. Over the same period new homes have increased by 11%[3].

House building chart 4-2

The 11% figure disguises a stark difference between inner and outer boroughs and where those homes have been built. Data from the Department for Communities and Local Government shows that there has been a 37% increase in the number of homes in Tower Hamlets since 2001 and a 20% increase in Islington. But in the same period the growth rate in dwellings in 16 outer boroughs has been in single figures – with just 4% in Sutton and 2% in Merton.

house buidling map 5-2

This pattern of growth is a reversal of what happened through most of the 20th century when more than half of the new housing stock was provided in the outer boroughs.

This growth in inner areas is not uniform however. 28% of the housing stock in Tower Hamlets was built this century, the highest proportion anywhere in the UK. It has the space through the redevelopment of areas like Canary Wharf and Limehouse.  Kensington and Chelsea in contrast has seen a 2% growth in homes due to the lack of brownfield sites.

The building in inner London means these areas are becoming more densely packed. Housing density is measured in dwellings per hectare. The average for England as a whole is 1.8. The average rate for London is 21.5[4]. For Inner London it is more than double that again at 44.6. And for Kensington and Chelsea, the borough with London’s highest, it is 69.1 dwelling per hectare.  The lowest density is Havering with 8.7 dwellings per hectare.  Havering is 10 times larger than Kensington and Chelsea. If it were to have the same dwelling density as the Royal borough it would have nearly 800,000 homes not the 100,000 it has currently.

As in the 1930s, the location of home building is pulling the population.  The biggest rate of growth in the past 12 months is in the City of London, but the numbers are small. After that it is Tower Hamlets where there has been at a 2.3% rise in residents in a year.

The GLA’s forecast for the next 25 years[5] shows that Tower Hamlets will lead the growth in residents, closely followed by Newham as many head east in search of a home.

House buidling map 6-2

But can building keep pace with demand?   New home starts are climbing back towards where they were 10 years ago, but it is still not enough and the problem is widely acknowledged. In his housing strategy document last year[6], the outgoing Mayor, Boris Johnson, said that housing was an “epic challenge” and that the number of new homes being built in the capital would need to double to 42,000 per year for the next 20 years to keep pace with population growth.

House building in the capital has been bumping along at around the 20,000 level for the past 10 years[7]. Following the financial crisis of 2008 it dipped sharply.

House building chart 7-2

Most of the homes being built are in the private sector, not social housing, which raises issues about affordability. Even in the ‘affordable’ sector a shift has taken place.

More affordable housing was delivered in London in the 2014-15 financial year than for any period dating back to 1991[8]. 17,913 homes were built or acquired and made available (so not counted in the new starts chart above) in the affordable rented sector, according to data from the Department for Communities and Local Government, and the GLA.

Affordable rents were previously available through what was termed social housing. This is rented property provided by a council or a housing association with long, secure tenancies and rents at around 50% of the market rates.

Housing associations also provided Intermediate rental.  This gives a tenant a subsidised rent, usually around 60% of the market rate, while they save for a deposit to buy the property.

In 2010 the government introduced a new category, which it confusingly called Affordable Rent.  This aimed to give social landlords a route to maintaining or increasing the amount of lower cost rental while relying less on public funding. It allows them to charge more and have less restrictive tenancies.  Affordable Rent properties can charge up to 80% of the market rate.

It is this sector that has taken off in the past year, increasing the amount of affordable housing, but the amount of Social Rent housing has declined sharply since AR was introduced.  And this is not due to the building of new stock alone. Some Social Rent property is re-classified as Affordable Rent when it becomes vacant.

House building chart 8-2

The last time the delivery of affordable housing was at this level was in 2011-12.  In that year a comparable number of Intermediate Rent properties were made available.  But there were 11,374 Social Rent homes. In 2014-15 that had been reduced to 3,053[9].

All candidates are making pledges about houses but perhaps the voters’ decisions on the housing issue comes down to the answers to 3 simple questions.  How many houses will you build, what sort of homes will they be and where will you build them?

Sources

[1] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[2] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[3] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[4] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[5] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[6] https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/housing-and-land/housing-strategy/mayors-housing-strategy

[7] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[8] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[9] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

This report was produced in association with London Live’s election special programme London Votes

 

 

Suicide rises but London still has the lowest rates in England

despairThe number of people committing suicide is at its highest this century.  The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows that 5,122 people took their own lives in 2014, the most since 1999.

551 of them were in London, where the rate of suicide went up by 4% on the previous year.  But the longer term trend is down and the capital has the lowest suicide rates of any region in England and Wales.

Men are more than 3 times more likely than women to kill themselves.  The general rate of suicide in the London is 8.3 per 100,000 people. For men it is 13.2 and for women 3.8. For both genders, London has the lowest rates.

Suicide rate national

The figures include all people over 15 who are officially recorded by a coroner to have committed suicide, or whose death has been caused by an undetermined injury.  The ONS combines these to get an accurate suicide rate as research has shown that most of the undetermined deaths are likely to be suicides.

The increase in London between 2013 to 2014 was largely caused by higher numbers in Southwark, Barnet, Haringey and Croydon.

The City of London has by far the highest rate, but this is based on a very small number of people. Outside the City, Haringey had the highest rate in 2014, followed by Islington, Tower Hamlets, Southwark and Hammersmith and Fulham.

Suicide rate map

 

Rates are a lot lower in outlying boroughs including Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow, Richmond and Kingston.

Source data

See also

Low drug-related death rates hide middle-aged heroin problem

Anxious, unhappy, dissatisfied with life? Perhaps you live in Hackney or Barking?

Well-being and wealth – how South West London soars ahead of the rest

For help and more information about suicide contact Samaritans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

London’s unique language landscape where 26% don’t speak English at home

crowd backs turnedMore than a quarter of Londoners don’t speak English at home.  The latest figures, for 2015, show that the proportion of people who choose another language as their first choice for speaking to family has risen to 26%.

This is a uniquely London phenomenon. Across the UK the rate is just 8.5%.  It is highest in the West Midland, where there is a significant immigrant population and in Wales, where Welsh speakers affect the numbers.

Not speaking English chart

The figures from the Office for National Statistics, based upon its Labour Force Survey,  reveal that in Newham 58% of people are using a language other than English at home. As previous data analysis by Urbs has shown, Newham is home to London’s largest Pakistani community and a significant Indian-born population.

In neighbouring Tower Hamlets, 41% are choosing another language at home above English.  The borough has the largest number of Bangladeshi-born people in the capital.

Not speaking English map

In north London, 45% in Harrow and 43% in Brent will speak other languages ahead of English among the family.  Both boroughs have large Indian-born populations.

Ealing is home to London’s largest Polish-born population, and a significant Indian-born community, which may explain why 38% of people use a language other than English at home.

The rates are only at or below the national average in 2 boroughs, Richmond and Havering.

According to the latest population estimates, 37% of Londoners, or 3 million people, were foreign-born while 23% or 2 million people are not British citizens.

This is leading to a multi-lingual city full of bi-lingual people.  Department of Education data, reported by Urbs, shows that nearly half the primary school children and 40% of the secondary pupils in London do not speak English as their first language. In some boroughs three quarters of the students speak English as a second language.

The concern for social inclusion is those who speak no English at all. Data from the last census in 2011 revealed that there are 45,000 people, mostly women, who say that they cannot speak the language.  The Prime Minister has announced a £20 million programme of English tuition but was criticised for his targeting of Muslim women, although they are the largest group.

Source data

See also

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

East London likely focal point for PM’s English tuition for Muslim women

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

Sportiest Londoners live in the wealthier south west boroughs

running woman-2People living in south west London are the sportiest in the city with a far higher proportion taking part in regular physical activity.

More than a quarter of the residents of Wandsworth do some form of sporting activity three times per week or more, according to survey data from Sport England.  But across London, in Newham and Barking and Dagenham, it is half that. And in Brent just 12% of people are doing that level of activity.

The south west corner of London has 4 boroughs, apart from Wandsworth, with large proportions of sporty people.  The data for Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Richmond and Merton shows about a quarter of people doing 3 sessions per week.

But in Bexley and Greenwich it is just 15%. It’s 14% in Newham and Barking and Dagenham. Across the other side of the city, in the north west, it is 15% in Ealing, 13% in Hillingdon, but with 12% Brent has the lowest rate of people doing regular exercise.

sport particpation map

South west London is generally a more affluent area than other parts of the capital but the reason why people there are more active in sports is not clear. These boroughs also have low levels of obesity, while the proportion of people with severe weight problems is much higher in boroughs such as Hillingdon, Barking and Dagenham and Bexley, as previoulsy reported by Urbs.

The data gathered by Sport England through the Active People Survey also reveals that as a region London has the highest average rate for people doing 3 sessions or more of exercise.

Sport participation regional

The current rate of 18.3% is up from 17.2% 10 years ago.  While this growth has been modest the proportion of people doing no exercise has also seen little change, and remains stubbornly high. Across the capital 52% of the population does no sporting activity.  But in Newham it is 62% and in Barking and Dagenham it is 64%.

For these people, getting off the coach to take part in sport 3 times a week may be a very tall order.  A more modest achievement may be to find a way to get them to join the 38% of Londoners who take part in sport once a week.

Source data

See also

Sporty Londoners prefer solo exercise

Size matters – and it depends where you live

The way we spend our cash – more rent, less alcohol, healthier eating

Health and wealth – an East/West divide when it comes to a flu jab

 

 

5 more boroughs will have a majority of BAME population in next 20 years

multi ethnic crowd bikeriderlondon shutterstock_150364787-1-2Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people will be in the majority in 12 of London’s 33 boroughs by 2036, according to population forecasts by the GLA.

Currently there is a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic majority in Newham, Brent, Tower Hamlets, Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow and Redbridge. By the end of the current decade there will be more BAME people than white people in Croydon, Barking and Dagenham, and Waltham Forest. By 2036 this will also be the case in Hillingdon and Lewisham.

BAME people are powering London’s population growth. Between the 2001 and 2011 census the population grew by 881,000. During the same period the white population fell by 300,000, despite the arrival of white EU migrants.

There are currently 8.6 million people living in London, 5 million of them are white. By 2041 the GLA expects their numbers to have risen by 10% to 5.5 million but the BAME population will grown by 36% from 3.6 to 4.9 million.

BAME White pop-2

The GLA forecasts that the biggest ethnic group will be from India. Black Africans overtook them at the time of the last census but they will become the biggest single group again by 2035, followed by Other Asians and Black Africans.

BAME trend-2

London will remain a city with a white majority population but the numbers vary in Inner and Outer areas. By 2041 BAME people will be 44% of the residents of inner boroughs and 49% of the population in outer areas.

Source data

See also

The Met fails to reflect the face of people it’s policing

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

Huge pay gap in hourly rates between full time and part time workers

Daniel Wilson shutterstock_95849584-1-2-1People working part time are paid a little over half the hourly rate of those working in full-time employment, and the gap between full time and part time rates is wider in London than any area of the country.

Latest figures for earnings from the Office for National Statistics show that the median hourly rate in London is £9.22 if you work part time but £16.16 for those with a full-time job.

A quarter of the jobs in London are part time and many of them are low skilled. That’s 1.24 million jobs, with some people doing more than one to make up full time hours but being paid a fraction of what they might earn as a full time employee.

In London the gap in hourly rates of pay is 43% but in every other region of the country it is 40% of less. In the South West of England part time workers earn an hourly rate of 68% the full time rate, compared to 57% in London.

The median hourly rate for part time work in the capital is just 14p higher than the next nearest region, the South East of England, but £1.20 higher than the lowest paid region, the North East.

Hourly earnings part time regional

The figures are based on a sample of PAYE records and the ONS calculates a median, or mid point, rather than an average, which might be distorted by a small number of very high rates.

People living in Newham have a lower hourly part time rate than any region of the country and are typically being paid less than those living in Newcastle or Sunderland, where the cost of living is lower.

The rate is only a little higher in neighbouring Tower Hamlets and across the capital median hourly rates for part time workers are below the London Living Wage in 15 of the 33 boroughs – Croydon, Merton, Greenwich, Lambeth, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking and Dagenham, Hounslow, Ealing, Brent, Camden, Hackney, Haringey, Enfield and Waltham Forest.

Hourly earnings part time map

The Greater London Authority sets the London Living Wage. It is a voluntary rate and promoted by the Mayor, who is trying to get employers to sign up. At the time of the earnings survey in April the London Living Wage was £9.15. It was increased to £9.40 in October.

As previously reported by Urbs, there are three quarters of a million jobs in London paying less than the Living Wage.  Data shows that women are more likley than men to be in low paid work, and nearly half of those working for less than the London Living Wage are under 24.

Source data

See also

Lowest paid living in Newham as rates remain static across capital

Over 750,000 jobs pay less than the living wage in the capital

Buying a home gets further out of reach, now 11 times annual salary

 

 

Lowest paid living in Newham as rates remain static across capital

Pay ShaunWilkinson shutterstock_207548536-1-2

Photo: Shaun Wilkinson ┃Shutterstock.com

The lowest paid full time workers in London appear to be living in Newham. Hourly rates of pay for residents of the East London borough are lower than the typical rate for the UK generally at £12.90.

People living in the City of London or the best-paid borough, Westminster, are typically earning in excess of £250 per week more with an hourly rate of pay over £20.

The figures are revealed in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings from the Office for National Statistics. They are based upon a sample of PAYE tax records and are considered the most reliable guide to pay rates.

Newham is not the only London borough where the median pay rate is below the rate for the UK generally. In Barking and Dagenham the full time hourly rate is £13.31, that’s 5p per hour below the UK median rate.

In contrast, across the river from Newham, the hourly rate in Greenwich is £3 higher.

Hourly pay full time London map

The median rate in Brent is below £14 per hour. In Enfield, Haringey, Waltham Forest, Hounslow and Ealing it is below £15.

Outside the centre, rates are highest in a pocket of South West London. Kensington and Chelsea, Richmond and Wandsworth have rates above £19 per hour. In Hammersmith and Fulham it is above £18.

The ONS uses a median rate or mid point rather than calculating an average, which would be distorted by a small number of very highly paid people. The rates are before tax and do not include overtime.

Rates of pay in London remain higher than the rest of the country. The London-wide median rate for full time employment is £16.16, £1.44 per hour more than the next nearest region, the South East of England, and £4.15 more than the lowest paid region, Northern Ireland.

Hourly rates full time regional

The median rate across the UK moved very little in the past year, rising by just 1.5% but that is 5 times higher than London where the hourly rate rose by just 5p since 2014.

Source data

See also

Over 750,000 jobs pay less than the living wage in the capital

Paying the rent takes up 72% of income for private tenants

Drug resistant TB poses health and financial concern

Mycobacterium_tuberculosis_Bacteria,_the_Cause_of_TB_By NIAID [CC BY 2.0 (http-//creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons 2.

Photo: by NIAID CC BY 2.0

London faces a potential health care and treatment funding crisis caused by the development of drug resistant TB.

There were 2,500 cases of tuberculosis in London last year, that’s more than any other western European city. 9% of those cases were resistant to the first line of antibiotics used to fight the infection. And the Health Committee of the London Assembly warns that drug resistance is set to rise.

In its report Tackling TB in London the Health Committee highlights how the risk from TB is increased by the lack of knowledge and the social stigma attached to the disease and it calls on the Mayor to do more to raise awareness.

It also suggests a more unified and consistent approach to treating the infection across the capital. Currently, treatment and prevention is handled at a local level and the approach varies between the 30 clinics. The committee warns that this can lead to a fragmented approach. This is underlined by the fact that only 24 of the 32 boroughs offer universal vaccination against TB to babies.

Cases of TB have risen by 50% in the last 15 years. A third of boroughs have what is classified by the World Health Organisation as a high incidence – that is more than 40 cases per 100,000 people. But in some areas of Newham, Brent, Hounslow, Harrow and Ealing it is over 150, a higher level than many developing world counties such as Rwanda or Iraq.

At borough level, Newham has the highest incidence in London and England, followed by Brent. London accounts for 40% of all TB cases in England.

TB map

TB is caused by bacteria and spread through coughing and sneezing. It most commonly affects the lungs, causing serious illness, and is potentially fatal.

It is treated by a 6-month course of antibiotics that costs around £5,000. Last year £30 million was spent tackling TB in London. Drug resistant strains of the infection require complex treatments often involving hospital care and costs are typically 10 times higher or more.

TB is closely linked to social deprivation with those who are homeless, living in overcrowded conditions, misusing drugs and alcohol, or with weakened immune systems particularly vulnerable.

Many people who are exposed to the tuberculosis bacterium will fight it off or may carry it in their bodies without getting sick. This is known as latent TB.

More than 80% of the cases in London are seen in people born outside the UK, though only a small proportion in those who have recently arrived. The most common countries of origin for non-UK born cases are India, Pakistan and Somalia.

Sufferers may have contracted TB in countries with high incidence and carried the infection in latent form only for it to become active while living in London.   Chronic illness or poor housing and nutrition may have acted as a trigger in these cases.

The rate for non-UK born cases has fallen in recent years but those for UK residents have remained unchanged.

The Health Committee reports says that far from being a disease of London’s past TB continues to present a significant public health challenge.

Source data

Tackling TB in London report

Borough level data

See also

Low drug-related death rates hide middle-aged heroin problem

Sexual infection map shows problems for Lambeth and Southwark

Health and wealth – an East/West divide when it comes to a flu jab