Borough Profile: Barnet 

People

There are 385,108 people living in Barnet, that’s 4.5% of the 8.6 million Londoners.

The average age of the population is 37.2 years old, that’s 1.3 years older than the London average. The under 16s in the borough outnumber the over 65s. Children and young people under 16 make up 21% of the population compared to 17% for the over 65s.

People who are black, Asian or of minority ethnic origin, BAME, represent 39% of the residents. 36% of the people living in Barnet were born abroad. The largest migrant group according to the last census is from India and makes up 3% of the population. The second largest group, based on the census is from Poland. More recently the largest number of migrants have come from Romania and Poland.

Housing

The median house price in the borough is £400,000.   Owner occupiers outnumber those who rent with 32% owning their home outright and a further 25% with a mortgage compared to 31% who rent privately and a further 11% living in social housing rented from the council or a housing association.

The council tax on a Band D property (the mid-tier cost in most local authorities) is £1,397.

Crime

The crime rate in Barnet is 63 crimes per 1,000 residents which is lower than the London average of 84.

The Area

Barnet covers an area of 8,675 hectares compared to the biggest borough, Bromley, which covers more than 15,000. The smallest borough, not counting the City of London, is Kensington and Chelsea, which covers around 1,200 hectares.

Some 41% of the area is classified as green space. The average for London is 38%.

Work

The employment rate in the Barnet is below the national average with 69% of people in work. The median annual salary for men is £36,888 and for women it is lower at £30,385.  The median income for a household in the borough is £54,530.

The workforce is among the highest qualified in London with 49% of workers who are educated to degree level or above. 5% have no qualifications and 3% of young people under 25 are listed as NEETS (that’s not in education, employment or training).

Transport

There are 144,717 cars in the borough, which equates to 1.1 cars per household.  Barnet is rated as below average for public transport, based on an index compiled by Transport for London. According to Government data on physical activity, 12.1% of people cycle each month.

Health and Well-being

Men living in Barnet can expect to live until they are 82, for women life expectancy is 85 years. The borough has a death rate from what are considered to be preventable causes of 133.8 per 100,000 people. The national rate for England is 182.

Other health indicators show that 6% of people over 17 suffer from diabetes and 18% of children are classified as obese.

When asked in a Government survey to rate their satisfaction with life the average score of people in the borough was 7.5 out of 10, which is above average for London.

See other borough profiles

Source Data

Growing diabetes problem in Barnet will place strain on NHS

The number of people with diabetes in Barnet will rise by 12,312 in the next 20 years, placing huge pressure on local health services, according to Public Health England.

There are currently 26,376 sufferers in the area, up by 568 on last year. That’s 8.6% of all the people living in Barnet , which is in line with the national rate. But forecasts by PHE, a government agency, show that by 2020 the rate will have gone up to 8.9% and in 2035 will hit 10%.

Diabetes 2035

The agency based its predictions on health surveys carried out over three years and focused on people over the age of 16. PHE says that around 90% of the new cases will be Type 2 diabetes, which is caused by lifestyle factors and linked to obesity. It says these cases are preventable and tackling the problem is fundamental to the future of the health service.

The increased prevalence of the condition coincides with a rise in the population of the capital in the coming decades. There will be 895,489 diabetes sufferers in London’s 33 boroughs by 2035, and 4.3% of them will live in Barnet .

Diabetes is caused by the inability of the body to regulate the amount of sugar in the blood. It is associated with an increased risk of stroke and heart attack. Sufferers may also develop kidney disease and foot ulcers, which can lead to amputation.

Source data

More diabetes stories

Election Issues: Balancing economic success with green ambitions

urban sunsetWhoever becomes London’s new mayor is going to have economic growth and improvement of the environment at the top of their agenda.  But are these two goals compatible?

In 2011 the Mayor set out a climate change strategy that aimed to reduce CO2 emissions to 60% of what they were in 1990 by 2025[1]. 1990 is an internationally recognised baseline that countries used in signing the Kyoto agreement.

2015 is the first big milestone in the Mayor’s plan. By the end of last year emissions should have been down by 20% on 1990 level.  But the most recent data for greenhouse gases in London shows that the capital is off course to hit this target[2].  In 2013 a reduction of only 11% had been achieved. This is better than the 10% of 2012 but falls short of the 13% achieved in 2011.

A breakdown of this number shows the challenge.  Roughly 40% of CO2 emissions come from homes, 40% from workplaces and 20% from transport.  But a fast-growing population, booming economy and a skyline filled with cranes make all three of these categories difficult. Per capita emissions have fallen by 28% since 1990, but that growing population means the total improvement has been much lower.

Not surprisingly, the growth in population has made domestic emissions the toughest to cut, down just 7% since 1990.

Environment chart 1-2

Despite all this, London has the lowest CO2 emissions per head in the UK.  That’s partly down to the way we live.  An example is London’s fastest growing borough, Tower Hamlets.  Not only has it London’s lowest car ownership level – at just 15 per 100 population compared to 49 in nearby Havering[3].  It also has far more energy efficient homes.  Looking at Domestic Energy Performance Certificates, London has 11% of homes in A or B categories compared to 9% across the UK[4].  Tower Hamlets has 27% of homes in these categories – largely due to a concentration of flats, especially new build.

Environment Chart 2-2

A nice side benefit for Tower Hamlets residents comes with their fuel bills – they have the lowest domestic gas consumption in the capital[5].

Recently, the London environment debate has shifted from CO2 greenhouse gases to the air quality issue of NO2.  This came to a head last year with the VW scandal, where drivers hoping to prevent climate change found themselves creating potentially lethal local health hazards.  A report from King’s College estimated that almost 10,000 Londoners were being killed by air pollution each year; most as a result of NO2 emissions[6].

A further study from Policy Exchange[7] estimated that just under a half of NO2 emissions come from road transport – the rest a mix of air and rail transport with domestic and commercial gas use.  In central London buses emerge as a particular issue, together with the gas used to fuel the city centre’s offices and shops.

In 2013, only two of London’s 32 boroughs (Sutton and Bromley) met the annual mean limit on NO2[8], and it took only the first week of 2016 for Putney High Street and Oxford Street to break their annual maximum limit for the whole year[9].

So what effect does air quality have across the capital?  The Kings College study breaks down its estimate of deaths attributable to air pollution by borough. This shows Barnet, Bromley and Croydon with the greatest impact, all having over 400 deaths per annum.

Environment Chart 3-2

Such statistics place huge pressure upon the Mayor to find ways for Londoners to breathe more easily.  The key responsibility of the Mayor’s role is to make London a better place for everyone to live. He or she has to ensure that businesses thrive so the economy of the city grows and delivers jobs while also improving London’s environment.   Achieving either is a huge task. Achieving both simultaneously will be a monumental challenge for whichever candidate wins office.

Source data

[1] https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/environment/environment-publications/delivering-londons-energy-future-mayors-climate

[2] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/interim-leggi–2013/resource/4aaba9fa-b382-40bd-a3e3-593c53bed245

[3]  http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/licensed-vehicles-type-0

[4] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/domestic-energy-efficiency-ratings-borough

[5] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gas-consumption-borough

[6] http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/HIAinLondon_KingsReport_14072015_final.pdf

[7] http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/publications/category/item/up-in-the-air-how-to-solve-london-s-air-quality-crisis-part-1

[8] http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2015-06-26.4471.h&s=speaker%3A11878#g4471.q0

[9] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/air-quality-summary-statistics

This report was produced in association with London Live’s election special programme London Votes.

Mayoral Election Issues: The Housing Shortage

roofer colourThe population is 8.6 million and the city is struggling with a shortage of housing.  Sounds familiar?  While this describes London today it also portrays the capital in the late 1930s.

After a post-war decline, the population has just got back to the 30s peak and a housing crisis has come back too.  So what has happened to house building in the intervening years? How did London find itself with a similar problem?

First, a bit of urban history. The shape of the capital has changed. In 1939 far more people lived in central London – 4.4 million lived in inner boroughs while 4.1 lived in outer ones[1].  The most highly populated areas were Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Lambeth, and can be seen as the darker areas on the map.

House bulding map 1-2

By 2015, the population of inner boroughs had fallen by 1 million while the outer boroughs have swelled by 24% to 5.1 million.  The most highly populated areas today are Barnet, Croydon and Ealing.

House building map 2-2

This switch in population from inner to outer came about because of house building.  The population surge of the 30s was met with a surge in building, and most of it took place in outer areas[2].

House building chart 3-2

This lure of new housing in the suburbs and the loss of central London housing in the Blitz helped reshape the capital.

In the last decade fewer homes were built than in the 1960s and 70s, when the population was shrinking. House-building has failed to keep pace with the population.

Since 2002 London has seen a 21% increase in jobs and a 16% rise in population. Over the same period new homes have increased by 11%[3].

House building chart 4-2

The 11% figure disguises a stark difference between inner and outer boroughs and where those homes have been built. Data from the Department for Communities and Local Government shows that there has been a 37% increase in the number of homes in Tower Hamlets since 2001 and a 20% increase in Islington. But in the same period the growth rate in dwellings in 16 outer boroughs has been in single figures – with just 4% in Sutton and 2% in Merton.

house buidling map 5-2

This pattern of growth is a reversal of what happened through most of the 20th century when more than half of the new housing stock was provided in the outer boroughs.

This growth in inner areas is not uniform however. 28% of the housing stock in Tower Hamlets was built this century, the highest proportion anywhere in the UK. It has the space through the redevelopment of areas like Canary Wharf and Limehouse.  Kensington and Chelsea in contrast has seen a 2% growth in homes due to the lack of brownfield sites.

The building in inner London means these areas are becoming more densely packed. Housing density is measured in dwellings per hectare. The average for England as a whole is 1.8. The average rate for London is 21.5[4]. For Inner London it is more than double that again at 44.6. And for Kensington and Chelsea, the borough with London’s highest, it is 69.1 dwelling per hectare.  The lowest density is Havering with 8.7 dwellings per hectare.  Havering is 10 times larger than Kensington and Chelsea. If it were to have the same dwelling density as the Royal borough it would have nearly 800,000 homes not the 100,000 it has currently.

As in the 1930s, the location of home building is pulling the population.  The biggest rate of growth in the past 12 months is in the City of London, but the numbers are small. After that it is Tower Hamlets where there has been at a 2.3% rise in residents in a year.

The GLA’s forecast for the next 25 years[5] shows that Tower Hamlets will lead the growth in residents, closely followed by Newham as many head east in search of a home.

House buidling map 6-2

But can building keep pace with demand?   New home starts are climbing back towards where they were 10 years ago, but it is still not enough and the problem is widely acknowledged. In his housing strategy document last year[6], the outgoing Mayor, Boris Johnson, said that housing was an “epic challenge” and that the number of new homes being built in the capital would need to double to 42,000 per year for the next 20 years to keep pace with population growth.

House building in the capital has been bumping along at around the 20,000 level for the past 10 years[7]. Following the financial crisis of 2008 it dipped sharply.

House building chart 7-2

Most of the homes being built are in the private sector, not social housing, which raises issues about affordability. Even in the ‘affordable’ sector a shift has taken place.

More affordable housing was delivered in London in the 2014-15 financial year than for any period dating back to 1991[8]. 17,913 homes were built or acquired and made available (so not counted in the new starts chart above) in the affordable rented sector, according to data from the Department for Communities and Local Government, and the GLA.

Affordable rents were previously available through what was termed social housing. This is rented property provided by a council or a housing association with long, secure tenancies and rents at around 50% of the market rates.

Housing associations also provided Intermediate rental.  This gives a tenant a subsidised rent, usually around 60% of the market rate, while they save for a deposit to buy the property.

In 2010 the government introduced a new category, which it confusingly called Affordable Rent.  This aimed to give social landlords a route to maintaining or increasing the amount of lower cost rental while relying less on public funding. It allows them to charge more and have less restrictive tenancies.  Affordable Rent properties can charge up to 80% of the market rate.

It is this sector that has taken off in the past year, increasing the amount of affordable housing, but the amount of Social Rent housing has declined sharply since AR was introduced.  And this is not due to the building of new stock alone. Some Social Rent property is re-classified as Affordable Rent when it becomes vacant.

House building chart 8-2

The last time the delivery of affordable housing was at this level was in 2011-12.  In that year a comparable number of Intermediate Rent properties were made available.  But there were 11,374 Social Rent homes. In 2014-15 that had been reduced to 3,053[9].

All candidates are making pledges about houses but perhaps the voters’ decisions on the housing issue comes down to the answers to 3 simple questions.  How many houses will you build, what sort of homes will they be and where will you build them?

Sources

[1] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[2] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[3] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[4] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/number-and-density-of-dwellings-by-borough

[5] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/population-change-1939-2015

[6] https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/housing-and-land/housing-strategy/mayors-housing-strategy

[7] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[8] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

[9] http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/housing-london

This report was produced in association with London Live’s election special programme London Votes

 

 

Suicide rises but London still has the lowest rates in England

despairThe number of people committing suicide is at its highest this century.  The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows that 5,122 people took their own lives in 2014, the most since 1999.

551 of them were in London, where the rate of suicide went up by 4% on the previous year.  But the longer term trend is down and the capital has the lowest suicide rates of any region in England and Wales.

Men are more than 3 times more likely than women to kill themselves.  The general rate of suicide in the London is 8.3 per 100,000 people. For men it is 13.2 and for women 3.8. For both genders, London has the lowest rates.

Suicide rate national

The figures include all people over 15 who are officially recorded by a coroner to have committed suicide, or whose death has been caused by an undetermined injury.  The ONS combines these to get an accurate suicide rate as research has shown that most of the undetermined deaths are likely to be suicides.

The increase in London between 2013 to 2014 was largely caused by higher numbers in Southwark, Barnet, Haringey and Croydon.

The City of London has by far the highest rate, but this is based on a very small number of people. Outside the City, Haringey had the highest rate in 2014, followed by Islington, Tower Hamlets, Southwark and Hammersmith and Fulham.

Suicide rate map

 

Rates are a lot lower in outlying boroughs including Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow, Richmond and Kingston.

Source data

See also

Low drug-related death rates hide middle-aged heroin problem

Anxious, unhappy, dissatisfied with life? Perhaps you live in Hackney or Barking?

Well-being and wealth – how South West London soars ahead of the rest

For help and more information about suicide contact Samaritans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fuel consumption down but scale of diesel use remains a worry for health

Cab speeds past-2The amount of fuel consumed by vehicles on the roads of London has fallen by nearly a third over the past 10 years.

The biggest reduction has been in personal travel, which includes cars, motorbikes and buses. Fuel usage in these types of transport is down by 31%.  The reduction for freight transport, which includes vans and lorries, is down by 22%. Personal travel accounts for 2½ times the fuel consumed by freight.

As previously reported by Urbs, traffic volumes have gone down by about 7% since 2004 despite a rising population. But the reduction in fuel consumption can also be attributed to better fuel economy for vehicles.

The estimates are based upon data modelling by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and it shows that fuel consumption, like car ownership, is highest in the outer boroughs, particularly those north of the river, such as Enfield, Barnet and Havering. The highest consumption level is in Hillingdon.

Fuel consumption

The estimates look at where fuel is consumed rather than where it was bought so areas with large arterial roads are likely to have higher consumption levels – the M4 running out through Hillingdon or the M1 in Barnet, for example.

The reduction in consumption is good news environmentally but the data reveals a statistic which is having an impact on the city’s air quality – the shift from petrol to diesel cars. In 2004 consumption of diesel was about 20% of the consumption level for petrol. By 2013 it was 67%.

Diesel engines were promoted by the government as they produce lower levels of emissions that contribute to climate change, but they produce higher levels of N02.  Recent research by Kings College found that NO2 is having a far more harmful impact on health than had been previously recognised and responsible for nearly 6,000 deaths a year.

Source data

See also

London leads the way in declining car use but the East is bucking the trend

Nearly 9,500 deaths a year – study reveals impact of air pollution

Most boroughs fail on legal limit for toxic gas that could harm health

Emission targets at risk as growing population hits greener city plan

 

Why where you live is affecting your gas bill

Canary wharf 2-2People living in outer London boroughs are spending more money heating their homes than those living in central areas.

Data on gas consumption over the past 10 years shows that households in boroughs such as Harrow, Barnet, Bromley, Bexley and Richmond are consistently among the highest consumers of gas.

In contrast, Tower Hamlets, Southwark and Islington have the lowest levels of consumption.

In 2014 the average domestic consumption in Harrow was 17,000 kilowatt hours.  In Tower Hamlets it was a little over half that.

Gas consumption map

The nature of the housing stock is likely to be an important factor here.  The larger number of older, bigger homes homes in outer areas need more gas to heat than the smaller flats, both council and privately owned, in inner areas.

Data analysis on areas of the capital with the most energy efficient homes, previously reported by Urbs, shows Tower Hamlets as the leading borough, largely due to the modern development of flats and houses in Canary Wharf and Limehouse.

The area that perform best for energy efficient housing in the map below tend to be the ones with the lower levels of gas consumption in the map above.

energy efficient homes

Source data

See also

Tower Hamlets leads the way for London’s greener homes

Living in the past: The old housing keeping a roof over our heads

Half the city’s homes are flats but London is low in the high-rise stakes

Mapping Londoners: Born in Russia

London has been a magnet for wealthy Russians in recent years with many investing in expensive property, and in one case buying a football club. This influx of super rich was documented at the start of 2015 in the aptly titled BBC programme Rich, Russian and living in London.

The data from the 2011 census shows that 60% of Russians who are registered as resident in London live in central areas. Their love of expensive properties in Mayfair and Chelsea is reflected by the fact that Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea are the boroughs with the largest numbers of Russian residents.

Camden, Barnet and Tower Hamlets all have communities of around 1,000.   Other boroughs have groups in the hundreds giving a total of 16,575, the 49th largest non UK-born population in the city.

Born in Russia

More recent data from the Annual Population Survey (a little less reliable than the hard numbers of the census) indicates that the number of Russians in London is declining. It suggests that numbers peaked at 18,000 in 2012 but have now fallen back to 11,000.

Source data

See also

Mapping Londoners: Born in Lithuania

Mapping Londoners: Born in the USA

Mapping Londoners: Born in Poland

More population maps

 

 

 

Cheaper in the Championship but many fans still paying some premier prices

Picure: © Photospook ┃Creative Commons

Picure: © Photospook ┃Creative Commons

For most London fans the cost of following football is considerably cheaper in the Championship or lower leagues than the top flight, but there are still some premier rate prices being charged for lower league football.

The average season ticket price for a Championship club in London is much lower than the Premier League, as you might expect. The average for the most expensive season ticket was £651 while the average price for the cheapest season ticket in the Premier League is £658.

But the averages hide some surprising facts. Data gathered by the BBC in its Price of Football Study shows that the most expensive season ticket at Crystal Palace and newly promoted Watford are below £700 but a top of the range season ticket at relegated QPR is £719 and at Fulham it is £839, the highest in the Championship.

The ticket pricing reflects clubs adjusting after promotion and relegation. Watford went up and their cheapest season ticket rose by £19 to £385. QPR fell out of the Premier League and their cheapest season ticket was reduced by more than £100 but is still £389. Adjustments are also made on match day tickets. Watford increased their cheapest match day ticket from £14 to £36. At QPR it is down £1 to £24.

Football season ticket championship

There’s a similar scenario at Millwall. The cheapest and most expensive season tickets at The Den are frozen at last season’s prices although the club is now playing League 1 football. The cheapest match day ticket has been reduced by £1.

Leyton Orient dropped the cheapest season ticket price by £40 on being relegated to League 2 but at £180 it is still a fiver more than Charlton’s cheapest and they’re playing in the Championship

Football season tickets L 1 2

 

Fans always have the option to buy single tickets rather than one for the season, but the price of a big day out at the game does not come cheap either. Urbs took the median ticket price and added a replica shirt, programme, a pie and a cup of tea to calculate the cost of a one off match day experience. Our calculations show that it is cheaper than the Premier League but there’s not a huge difference between the Championship and League 2.

Football match day championship

Football match day L1 2

The biggest cost is the replica shirt, particular if you want the orange and black hoops of Barnet, just up from the Conference this season, but with a Premier League price on the kit. One saving you do make at The Hive is the price of a pie.  Barnet don’t have any, and neither do AFC Wimbledon.

Following football is packed with highs and lows for fans, but one thing remains consistent, it is punishing on the pocket.

Source data

See also

Season ticket price freeze but what’s the cost of a day out for a less loyal fan?

Met earns millions for policing football but costs are higher still

A poor day out in the Prem is away fans’ verdict on most London grounds

The shifting population story of the fall and rise of inner London

terrace rooftops BW

The population is a little over 8.6 million and the city is struggling with a housing shortage. This description may sound familiar to Londoners, but it not only reflects the current reality but the situation in 1939.

London reached its previous peak in population just before the Second World War. The numbers dropped in the post war years and only broke the milestone number of 8.61 million people this year, according to estimates by the GLA.

While the numbers are back to pre-war levels the shape of the city has changed. The foreign-born population has grown from single figures to the 37% of Londoners who were born outside the UK today. Data from the GLA shows how the geography of the city population has changed too.

In 1939 far more people lived in central London – 4.4 million lived in inner boroughs while 4.1 lived in outer ones. The most highly populated areas were Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Lambeth, and can be seen as the darker areas on the map.

1939 population

A new London emerged after the war. Much housing had been destroyed in the Blitz and new house building took off in the outer London suburbs pulling the population from the centre. The effects of that trend are seen today. The population of the inner boroughs is down by 1 million while the outer boroughs have swelled by 24% to 5.1 million. The most highly populated areas in 2015 are Barnet, Croydon and Ealing.

1939 2015

But looking at the annual data in detail shows a more complex pattern of how London has changed since 1939 and continues to evolve.   The population hit its low point in 1988 driven largely by the exodus from central boroughs. The lighter areas on the population change map below show where numbers were falling up to 1988.

1939 change pre 88

But the trend begins to reverse as numbers in the capital rise again. Between 1988 and today the population has risen in every area. Tower Hamlets and Newham have seen the strongest growth but central areas like Southwark and Hackney have witnessed larger rates of increase that outlying areas.

1939 change post 88

As the capital grows to record levels it is shifting once again. The biggest rate of growth in the past 12 months is in the City of London, but the numbers are small. After that it is Tower Hamlets where there has been at a 2.3% rise in residents in a year.  And over the next 25 years the GLA projections show that Tower Hamlets will lead the growth in residents, closely followed by Newham as many head east in search of a home in the capital.

1939 projection

 

 

Source data

Booming population will struggle to find a place to live

London drives UK population growth

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city