5 more boroughs will have a majority of BAME population in next 20 years

multi ethnic crowd bikeriderlondon shutterstock_150364787-1-2Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people will be in the majority in 12 of London’s 33 boroughs by 2036, according to population forecasts by the GLA.

Currently there is a Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic majority in Newham, Brent, Tower Hamlets, Harrow, Ealing, Hounslow and Redbridge. By the end of the current decade there will be more BAME people than white people in Croydon, Barking and Dagenham, and Waltham Forest. By 2036 this will also be the case in Hillingdon and Lewisham.

BAME people are powering London’s population growth. Between the 2001 and 2011 census the population grew by 881,000. During the same period the white population fell by 300,000, despite the arrival of white EU migrants.

There are currently 8.6 million people living in London, 5 million of them are white. By 2041 the GLA expects their numbers to have risen by 10% to 5.5 million but the BAME population will grown by 36% from 3.6 to 4.9 million.

BAME White pop-2

The GLA forecasts that the biggest ethnic group will be from India. Black Africans overtook them at the time of the last census but they will become the biggest single group again by 2035, followed by Other Asians and Black Africans.

BAME trend-2

London will remain a city with a white majority population but the numbers vary in Inner and Outer areas. By 2041 BAME people will be 44% of the residents of inner boroughs and 49% of the population in outer areas.

Source data

See also

The Met fails to reflect the face of people it’s policing

Poles and Pakistanis help shape the multi-cultural make up of the city

London is more diverse than the UN or Fifa

Mapping Londoners: Born in Uganda

Ugandan-born Londoners have a preference for boroughs in the north west of the city. Harrow is the favourite place to live but across the capital there are also large groups of Ugandan-born people in Croydon, Redbridge and Newham.

Born in Uganda

According to the 2011 census there were 32,000 people resident in London who were born in Uganda. The latest estimates in the Annual Population Survey suggests that number may have declined to around 25,000 in 2014.

Ugandans are the 6th largest group of African-born people in the capital. The country was part of the British Empire and gained independence in 1962. Some who identified themselves as Ugandan-born in the census may be of Asian descent and came to Britain after they were expelled from Uganda by the then president, Idi Amin, in 1972

Source data

More population maps

 

Schools data reveals ethnic mix with fall in proportion of white British pupils

dreamstime_s_6081706London has long been an ethnically diverse city and data from primary schools reveal the recent trends in the population groups and where they live.

Over the past 7 years the proportion of primary school children who are classified as white British has gone down from 37% to 27%. In comparison, the average figure for the rest of England is 69%. The biggest change in any ethnic group over the period has been the increase in children classified as white non-British. This group has increased from 8.9% of primary age children in 2007 to 13.4% today and can be explained by the arrival of people from EU countries.

As our chart shows, there has also been an increase in children of mixed race and children classified as Asian. Most of the growth in the Asian group is in Pakistani children, rising from 3.7% in 2007 to 4.4% today. The proportion of Indian and Bangladeshi children has changed little.

Primary pupils ethnic mix

The proportion of Black children in primary schools has remained steady at around 20%. In 2007 African children were roughly twice the number of Caribbean children. Their numbers have grown and the proportion of children of Caribbean origin has fallen slightly.

Urbs used the data produced by the Department for Education to map the city, revealing the broad patterns of population.

There are significantly higher proportions of white British children in the outer boroughs in the south and the east. In Havering it is 68% yet in nearby Newham a tenth of that. There are high proportions of white British children in Bexley, Bromley, Sutton and Richmond.

Primary pupils white brit

The proportions of non-British white children are more evenly spread but with much higher concentrations in the northern boroughs of Enfield, Haringey, Brent and Waltham Forest.

Primary pupils white other

Asian families coming to London have long settled in the East End. That legacy lives on and 65% of primary pupils in Tower Hamlets are classified as Asian. Newham and Redbridge also have a high percentage of Asian children, as does Harrow in the north west of the city.

Primary pupils asian

The black population is more uniformly spread with highest proportions south of the river in Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham. Richmond and Kingston have very few black pupils.

Primary pupils black

 

Source data

See also:

Our multi-lingual city – English second language for half of primary pupils

London leads in places for poorer students

Private school? Depends where you live

London drives UK population growth