How London’s population boom helped Sadiq Khan to victory

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A large Labour vote from a growing central London population gave Sadiq Khan a resounding win in some constituencies and helped propel him into office.

In the large City and East,  and North East constituencies Khan’s first preference votes outnumbered Conservative Zac Goldsmith by three to one and he added 56,000 votes to the Labour performance in 2012.   In both these areas Khan won 60% of the first preference votes. On a similar turnout in 2008 Ken Livingstone only managed 52% and 49% of first preferences in these London Labour heartlands.

In Greenwich and Lewisham, and Enfield and Haringey Khan beat Goldsmith by roughly two votes to one.  Goldsmith only managed to fight back with that degree of margin over Khan in Bexley and Bromley.

Khan also managed to reshape the traditional election map that has Labour support in the centre of the city and Conservative areas at its edges. He won Merton and Wandsworth, which includes his home ground of Tooting, and Ealing and Hillingdon.

Mayor How London voted-2

The election saw a record-equalling turnout of 45% and more people voting than ever  thanks to the growing population. This has given Sadiq Khan the most votes secured by any winning candidate since the city began electing mayors at the start of the century.

Mayor London result-2

Sadiq Khan secured victory with the biggest share of the vote since Ken Livingstone swept into office as the first elected mayor in 2000. He won 56.8% of the vote compared to Livingstone’s 57.9% in 2000.

He did well on first preference votes winning 44%, matched only by Boris Johnson in 2012. But in the end the contest was decided on second preferences and Khan had a clear advantage here winning 161,427, almost twice the number cast for Goldsmith by those giving their first votes to the other candidates.

The full data on second preferences shows the Green’s Sian Berry as the most favoured second choice candidate.  She won 468,318 second choice votes, beating Sadiq Khan.

Berry came third overall in the poll, and secured third place in 10 of the 14 London Assembly constituencies.  The Liberal Democrats Caroline Pidgeon was fourth but picked up third place in 2 areas – West Central and South West. UKIP’s Peter Whittle managed fifth place overall but came third in Bexley and Bromley, and Havering and Redbridge.

It was an uncomfortable result for George Galloway and his Respect Party.  The former MP managed only seventh place behind Sophie Walker and the newly formed Women’s Equality Party.  Even in his old London stamping ground as an MP in the east of the city he managed only sixth place.

Source data

See also

Mayoral Election Issues: The Economy and Jobs

Mayoral Election Issues: The homes affordability crisis

The shifting population story of the fall and rise of inner London